Armband

One move. Every deadline.

Gameweek 1 briefing

FPL Gameweek 1: the transfer, the armband and the outliers

B.Fernandes (MUN) leads the Gameweek 1 projections on 5.1 expected points, with Haaland on 5.0 as the safer runner-up. Below: the strongest buys in each position, the players whose underlying numbers say a return is overdue, the fixture runs turning kind, and where the market is heading. Deadline: Friday 21 August at 17:30 UTC.

Captain picks for Gameweek 1

Ranked highest first on the Armband score, the one number that also picks the captain in the drafts below: projected points blended with recent scoring (capped at 1.5 times the projection), rewarded for a reliable floor and for the chance of a 10+ score, and marked down for wild swings or for running hot.

  1. 1.B.FernandesMUN · MID · 38.6% owned5.5 Armband
    5.1 projected · 3% for 10+Last 4: no starts yetReturns: 0/1 starts · penalties

    Highest floor of your realistic options. Returned in 0 of his last 1 starts, median 0 points, and he takes the penalties.

  2. 2.HaalandMCI · FWD · 73.7% owned5.4 Armband
    5.0 projected · 2% for 10+Last 4: no starts yetReturns: 0/1 starts · penalties

    On penalties, returned in 0 of his last 1 starts, median 0 points.

  3. 3.SakaARS · MID · 13.5% owned4.4 Armband
    4.0 projected · 3% for 10+Last 4: no starts yetReturns: 0/1 starts · penalties

    On penalties, returned in 0 of his last 1 starts, median 0 points.

  4. 4.Gibbs-WhiteNFO · MID · 15.7% owned4.1 Armband
    3.6 projected · 3% for 10+Last 4: no starts yetReturns: 0/1 starts · penalties

    On penalties, returned in 0 of his last 1 starts, median 0 points.

  5. 5.SzoboszlaiLIV · MID · 33.1% owned4.1 Armband
    3.6 projected · 3% for 10+Last 4: no starts yetReturns: 0/1 starts · penalties

    On penalties, returned in 0 of his last 1 starts, median 0 points.

Wildcard draft for Gameweek 1

A full fifteen built from scratch inside £100.0m, picked for the next 5 gameweeks rather than this one alone. Three players per club and the usual position quotas; doubtful players are included only when their official chance of playing is at least 50%.

Formation

5-4-1

Spend

£98.1m£1.9m left

Best eleven, 5 weeks

235.0 xPts

Armband

B.Fernandes

Objective: for each of Gameweeks 1 to 5,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 48.1.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 0.7 on the same objective (219.3 average for its eleven), so this draft is 47.4 ahead.

4+ a week

2 of 15

Real upside

015%+ for 10+

Floor only

11

Eleven: mean / ceiling

235.0 / 304.1

Ceiling starters per week: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 25. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Raya

ARS v COV (H)

19.8 xPts

3% for 10+

£6.1m · 87%

Calafiori

ARS v COV (H)

19.9 xPts

4% for 10+

£5.8m · 86%

!

Tarkowski

EVE v CRY (H)

17.5 xPts

4% for 10+

£6.1m · 78%

Virgil

LIV v NEW (A)

17.3 xPts

4% for 10+

£6.5m · 79%

!

Bogle

LEE v NFO (A)

14.3 xPts

3% for 10+

£4.6m · 74%

!

Mykolenko

EVE v CRY (H)

12.4 xPts

3% for 10+

£4.6m · 63%

C

B.Fernandes

MUN v HUL (A)

27.4 xPts x2

3% for 10+

£11.9m · 87%

V

Saka

ARS v COV (H)

22.2 xPts

3% for 10+

£9.5m · 80%

Szoboszlai

LIV v NEW (A)

19.6 xPts

3% for 10+

£7.0m · 84%

!

Groß

BHA v AVL (H)

17.5 xPts

3% for 10+

£5.8m · 80%

Isak

LIV v NEW (A)

18.5 xPts

2% for 10+

£9.1m · 72%

Bench, in order

Kinsky

TOT v BRE (A)

13.9 xPts

3% for 10+

£4.5m · 78%

Hughes

CRY v EVE (A)

9.5 xPts

3% for 10+

£4.4m · 66%

Calvert-Lewin

LEE v NFO (A)

16.4 xPts

2% for 10+

£6.0m · 71%

Wissa

NEW v LIV (H)

16.1 xPts

2% for 10+

£6.2m · 70%

Armband: B.Fernandes wears it in Gameweek 1; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Head to head: B.Fernandes faces Tarkowski in GW3 (MUN v EVE), B.Fernandes faces Mykolenko in GW3 (MUN v EVE), Bogle faces Groß in GW3 (LEE v BHA). These survived because the cost charged for them inside the objective was still smaller than the points gained.

Projected points, week by week, armband included

Starting eleven All fifteen

43.7GW144.8GW245.5GW343.2GW457.8GW5

Each week the armband goes to the starter with the best chance of a 10+ score, not simply the highest average, because captaincy doubles a range of outcomes.

Workings, week by week

GWCaptain (10+ chance)ElevenXI + CClashObjective
1B.Fernandes 3%Raya, Calafiori, Virgil, Tarkowski, Bogle, Mykolenko, B.Fernandes, Saka, Szoboszlai, Groß, Isak43.708.6
2B.Fernandes 3%Raya, Virgil, Calafiori, Tarkowski, Bogle, Mykolenko, B.Fernandes, Szoboszlai, Saka, Groß, Isak44.809.8
3B.Fernandes 3%Raya, Calafiori, Virgil, Tarkowski, Bogle, Mykolenko, B.Fernandes, Saka, Groß, Szoboszlai, Isak45.5-12.6-2.1
4B.Fernandes 3%Raya, Calafiori, Virgil, Tarkowski, Bogle, Mykolenko, B.Fernandes, Saka, Szoboszlai, Groß, Isak43.208.1
5B.Fernandes 4%Raya, Tarkowski, Bogle, Calafiori, Mykolenko, Virgil, B.Fernandes, Saka, Calvert-Lewin, Isak, Wissa57.8023.6
Total48.1

Closest alternative squads

  • 42.0(-6.1)Calafiori, Mykolenko, Szoboszlai, Großout,Gvardiol, Shaw, Gakpo, Ricein
  • 41.4(-6.7)Isak, Calafiori, Mykolenko, Großout,João Pedro, Guéhi, Hall, Ricein
  • 33.8(-14.3)Raya, Wissa, Tarkowski, Mykolenko, Szoboszlai, Saka, Großout,Pickford, Thomas, Schade, Rogers, Palmer, João Pedro, Muharemovićin

Moves after the wildcard, one a week

  • GW2WissatoJoão Pedro£7.7m · 82% to start · worth 3.7 points over the rest of the window
  • GW3VirgiltoGuéhi£6.0m · 78% to start · worth 0.6 points over the rest of the window
  • GW4SzoboszlaitoRogers£7.7m · 86% to start · worth 1.1 points over the rest of the window
  • GW5GroßtoStach£6.0m · 57% to start · worth 1.0 points over the rest of the window

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Free hit draft for Gameweek 1

Solved for this gameweek alone, with every pound pushed into the eleven. A free hit lasts one week, so the bench here is only there to make the squad legal.

Formation

5-4-1

Spend

£99.9m£0.1m left

Starting eleven

44.6 xPts

Armband

B.Fernandes

Objective: for this gameweek,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 9.5.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores -0.7 on the same objective (41.1 average for its eleven), so this draft is 10.2 ahead.

4+ a week

2 of 15

Real upside

015%+ for 10+

Floor only

9

Eleven: mean / ceiling

44.6 / 57.7

Ceiling starters per week: 0 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 5. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.1m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Raya

ARS v COV (H)

4.0 xPts

3% for 10+

£6.1m · 87%

Calafiori

ARS v COV (H)

3.8 xPts

4% for 10+

£5.8m · 86%

Virgil

LIV v NEW (A)

3.3 xPts

3% for 10+

£6.5m · 79%

Tarkowski

EVE v CRY (H)

3.3 xPts

3% for 10+

£6.1m · 78%

De Cuyper

BHA v AVL (H)

2.8 xPts

4% for 10+

£4.9m · 78%

Diop

IPS v SUN (H)

1.7 xPts

2% for 10+

£4.0m · 51%

C

B.Fernandes

MUN v HUL (A)

5.1 xPts x2

3% for 10+

£11.9m · 87%

V

Saka

ARS v COV (H)

4.0 xPts

3% for 10+

£9.5m · 80%

Palmer

CHE v FUL (A)

4.0 xPts

3% for 10+

£9.7m · 81%

75% chance to play

Rogers

CHE v FUL (A)

3.9 xPts

3% for 10+

£7.7m · 86%

João Pedro

CHE v FUL (A)

3.6 xPts

2% for 10+

£7.7m · 82%

75% chance to play

Bench, in order

Kinsky

TOT v BRE (A)

2.7 xPts

3% for 10+

£4.5m · 78%

Hughes

CRY v EVE (A)

2.3 xPts

3% for 10+

£4.4m · 66%

Barry

EVE v CRY (H)

2.7 xPts

1% for 10+

£5.6m · 65%

Emersonn

IPS v SUN (H)

2.0 xPts

1% for 10+

£5.5m · 50%

Armband: B.Fernandes wears it in Gameweek 1; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Workings, week by week

GWCaptain (10+ chance)ElevenXI + CClashObjective
1B.Fernandes 3%Raya, Calafiori, Virgil, Tarkowski, De Cuyper, Diop, B.Fernandes, Saka, Palmer, Rogers, João Pedro44.609.5
Total9.5

Closest alternative squads

  • 8.3(-1.2)Rogersout,Cherkiin
  • 6.6(-2.9)Saka, Palmer, João Pedro, Virgil, Tarkowski, De Cuyperout,Davis, Gibbs-White, Cherki, Haaland, Mitchell, Konsain
  • 6.3(-3.2)Raya, Palmer, João Pedro, Virgil, Tarkowski, Barryout,Pickford, Davis, Shaw, Cherki, Haaland, Kusi-Asarein

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Best GKP picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

  • RayaARS · GKP · £6.1m · 42.2% ownedCOV (H) · AVL (A) · CHE (H)19.8 xPts
  • PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 9.1% ownedCRY (H) · BOU (A) · MUN (H)16.9 xPts
  • DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)16.7 xPts
  • A.BeckerLIV · GKP · £5.5m · 4.0% ownedNEW (A) · NFO (H) · IPS (A)15.3 xPts

Best DEF picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

  • CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.8m · 50.6% ownedCOV (H) · AVL (A) · CHE (H)19.9 xPts
  • GabrielARS · DEF · £8.0m · 22.8% ownedCOV (H) · AVL (A) · CHE (H)18.5 xPts
  • TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.0% ownedCRY (H) · BOU (A) · MUN (H)17.5 xPts
  • VirgilLIV · DEF · £6.5m · 16.2% ownedNEW (A) · NFO (H) · IPS (A)17.3 xPts

Best MID picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

  • B.FernandesMUN · MID · £11.9m · 38.6% ownedHUL (A) · IPS (H) · EVE (A)27.4 xPts
  • SakaARS · MID · £9.5m · 13.5% ownedCOV (H) · AVL (A) · CHE (H)22.2 xPts
  • RogersCHE · MID · £7.7m · 40.4% ownedFUL (A) · BHA (H) · ARS (A)21.6 xPts
  • SemenyoMCI · MID · £8.4m · 15.5% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)20.2 xPts

Best FWD picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

  • HaalandMCI · FWD · £15.6m · 73.7% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)28.0 xPts
  • IsakLIV · FWD · £9.1m · 22.4% ownedNEW (A) · NFO (H) · IPS (A)18.5 xPts
  • Calvert-LewinLEE · FWD · £6.0m · 24.9% ownedNFO (A) · BRE (H) · BHA (A)16.4 xPts
  • WissaNEW · FWD · £6.2m · 18.7% ownedLIV (H) · TOT (A) · BOU (H)16.1 xPts

Outliers: due a return

These players have created far more than they have scored or assisted. That gap usually closes, and the price often has not caught up yet.

  • ThiagoBRE · FWD · £7.8m · 9.0% ownedTOT (H) · LEE (A) · SUN (H)+2.3
  • BarryEVE · FWD · £5.6m · 8.2% ownedCRY (H) · BOU (A) · MUN (H)+1.6
  • E.Le FéeSUN · MID · £5.7m · 3.4% ownedIPS (A) · FUL (H) · BRE (A)+1.4
  • O'ReillyMCI · DEF · £6.3m · 11.0% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)+1.3
  • SzoboszlaiLIV · MID · £7.0m · 33.1% ownedNEW (A) · NFO (H) · IPS (A)+1.2
  • SakaARS · MID · £9.5m · 13.5% ownedCOV (H) · AVL (A) · CHE (H)+1.2
  • MbeumoMUN · MID · £7.9m · 20.7% ownedHUL (A) · IPS (H) · EVE (A)+0.9
  • Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% ownedCRY (H) · BOU (A) · MUN (H)+0.8

Outliers: running hot

Scoring well above their underlying numbers. Not a sell on its own, but be careful paying a premium for a run that the chances do not support.

  • GroßBHA · MID · £5.8m · 28.0% ownedAVL (H) · CHE (A) · LEE (H)-4.4
  • SemenyoMCI · MID · £8.4m · 15.5% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)-3.5
  • SchadeBRE · MID · £6.2m · 10.9% ownedTOT (H) · LEE (A) · SUN (H)-3.2
  • GvardiolMCI · DEF · £5.7m · 26.6% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)-3.0
  • CherkiMCI · MID · £7.8m · 28.3% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)-2.7
  • De CuyperBHA · DEF · £4.9m · 27.3% ownedAVL (H) · CHE (A) · LEE (H)-1.8

Differentials under 8% owned

Where the rank is won. Strong five-gameweek projections that most of your mini-league does not own.

  • Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% ownedCRY (H) · BOU (A) · MUN (H)17.6 xPts
  • WirtzLIV · MID · £7.3m · 5.8% ownedNEW (A) · NFO (H) · IPS (A)17.2 xPts
  • CunhaMUN · MID · £7.9m · 5.7% ownedHUL (A) · IPS (H) · EVE (A)16.8 xPts
  • BarnesNEW · MID · £6.1m · 5.5% ownedLIV (H) · TOT (A) · BOU (H)16.8 xPts
  • DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)16.7 xPts
  • NdiayeMCI · MID · £5.8m · 6.8% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)16.4 xPts

Best value under £6.0m

Most projected points per million spent, the picks that free up money elsewhere in your squad.

  • CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.8m · 50.6% ownedCOV (H) · AVL (A) · CHE (H)3.4 /£m
  • BogleLEE · DEF · £4.6m · 6.9% ownedNFO (A) · BRE (H) · BHA (A)3.1 /£m
  • PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 9.1% ownedCRY (H) · BOU (A) · MUN (H)3.1 /£m
  • KinskyTOT · GKP · £4.5m · 17.4% ownedBRE (A) · NEW (H) · NFO (A)3.1 /£m
  • VerbruggenBHA · GKP · £4.5m · 21.7% ownedAVL (H) · CHE (A) · LEE (H)3.1 /£m
  • DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H)3.0 /£m

Defensive contribution engines

Players clearing the defensive contribution threshold most regularly, so the two bonus points land more often than not.

  • LacroixCHE · DEF · £5.9m · 6.8% ownedFUL (A) · BHA (H) · ARS (A)1.94x
  • MuharemovićLEE · DEF · £5.0m · 4.3% ownedNFO (A) · BRE (H) · BHA (A)1.93x
  • TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.0% ownedCRY (H) · BOU (A) · MUN (H)1.70x
  • AjerBRE · DEF · £4.5m · 3.9% ownedTOT (H) · LEE (A) · SUN (H)1.67x
  • VirgilLIV · DEF · £6.5m · 16.2% ownedNEW (A) · NFO (H) · IPS (A)1.60x
  • HallNEW · DEF · £5.3m · 17.0% ownedLIV (H) · TOT (A) · BOU (H)1.54x

Fixture swings over the next five

Kindest runs

  • LiverpoolNEW (A) · NFO (H) · IPS (A) · FUL (H) · BOU (A)2.60
  • LeedsNFO (A) · BRE (H) · BHA (A) · NEW (H) · CRY (H)2.80
  • Man CityBOU (H) · CRY (A) · COV (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H)2.80
  • Man UtdHUL (A) · IPS (H) · EVE (A) · MCI (H) · FUL (A)2.80
  • SpursBRE (A) · NEW (H) · NFO (A) · EVE (H) · AVL (H)2.80

Toughest runs

  • BournemouthMCI (A) · EVE (H) · NEW (A) · BRE (H) · LIV (H)3.60
  • FulhamCHE (H) · SUN (A) · CRY (H) · LIV (A) · MUN (H)3.60
  • Coventry CityARS (A) · HUL (H) · MCI (A) · BHA (H) · NFO (A)3.40
  • ArsenalCOV (H) · AVL (A) · CHE (H) · SUN (A) · BHA (A)3.20
  • Hull CityMUN (H) · COV (A) · AVL (H) · CHE (A) · NEW (A)3.20

Lower is easier. Scores are the official fixture difficulty ratings averaged over the next five games.

What the market is doing this week

Most bought

  • Groß BHA+691k
  • Schade BRE+317k
  • Kostoulas BHA+251k
  • De Cuyper BHA+231k
  • Hall NEW+198k

Most sold

  • João Pedro CHE-295k
  • Szoboszlai LIV-153k
  • Elanga NEW-151k
  • B.Fernandes MUN-140k
  • M.Sangaré BRE-118k

Net transfers this gameweek. Heavy buying usually means a price rise is close. See price changes.

Availability watch

Widely owned players carrying an injury, suspension or rotation flag. These are already discounted in the projections and never suggested as a buy.

  • João PedroCHE · 65.6% owned · 75% chance to playKnee injury - 75% chance of playing
  • PalmerCHE · 26.0% owned · 75% chance to playMuscular injury - 75% chance of playing
  • RiceARS · 11.9% owned · 75% chance to playUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
  • van EwijkCOV · 8.9% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
  • Pedro PorroTOT · 7.7% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
  • JamesCHE · 5.9% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
  • WhiteARS · 5.0% owned · 75% chance to playGroin injury - 75% chance of playing

Talk about Gameweek 1

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