Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 11?

Haaland (MCI) leads Armband's Gameweek 11 projections with 5.0 expected points, ahead of Rogers on 4.4. Projections come from team attack and defence ratings built on actual results, expected goals and assists, clean-sheet odds and start probability.

Who should I transfer in for FPL Gameweek 11?

Raya (ARS, £6.2m) has the highest projected return over the next five gameweeks at 19.4 expected points. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are excluded from transfer-in suggestions.

Which FPL players are due a return in Gameweek 11?

Gonzalo (FUL), Barry (EVE), Bobb (FUL) are the biggest underperformers against their expected goals and assists, which historically corrects.

Armband

One move. Every deadline.

Gameweek 11 briefing

FPL Gameweek 11: the transfer, the armband and the outliers

Haaland (MCI) leads the Gameweek 11 projections on 5.0 expected points, with Rogers on 4.4 as the safer runner-up. Below: the strongest buys in each position, the players whose underlying numbers say a return is overdue, the fixture runs turning kind, and where the market is heading. Deadline: Saturday 21 November at 11:00 UTC.

Captain picks for Gameweek 11

Ranked highest first on the Armband score, the one number that also picks the captain in the drafts below: projected points blended with recent scoring (capped at 1.5 times the projection), rewarded for a reliable floor and for the chance of a 10+ score, and marked down for wild swings or for running hot.

1.HaalandMCI · FWD · 79.2% owned6.6 Armband
5.0 projected · 22% for 10+Last 4: 6 · 13 · 8 · 2Returns: 4/5 starts · penalties
Highest floor of your realistic options. Returned in 4 of his last 5 starts, median 7 points, and he takes the penalties.
2.TavernierBOU · MID · 30.4% owned5.8 Armband
3.6 projected · 30% for 10+Last 4: 1 · 10 · 10 · 3Returns: 2/5 starts
Returned in 2 of his last 5 starts, median 7 points, 30.4% owned.
3.IwobiFUL · MID · 1.5% owned4.9 Armband
3.6 projected · 17% for 10+Last 4: 4 · 11 · 3 · 6Returns: 2/5 starts
Returned in 2 of his last 5 starts, median 5 points, 1.5% owned.
4.ThiagoBRE · FWD · 9.0% owned4.8 Armband
4.3 projected · 6% for 10+Last 4: 4 · 4 · 5 · 9Returns: 1/5 starts · penalties
On penalties, returned in 1 of his last 5 starts, median 5 points.
5.MbeumoMUN · MID · 19.8% owned4.7 Armband
4.0 projected · 8% for 10+Last 4: 8 · 8 · 2 · 1Returns: 2/5 starts
Returned in 2 of his last 5 starts, median 5 points, 19.8% owned.

Wildcard draft for Gameweek 11

A full fifteen built from scratch inside £100.0m, picked for the next 5 gameweeks rather than this one alone. Three players per club and the usual position quotas; doubtful players are included only when their official chance of playing is at least 50%.

Formation

5-3-2

Spend

£97.6m£2.4m left

Best eleven, 5 weeks

234.7 xPts

Armband

Haaland

Objective: for each of Gameweeks 11 to 15,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 210.0.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 180.1 on the same objective (215.7 average for its eleven), so this draft is 29.9 ahead.

4+ a week

3 of 15

Real upside

815%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

234.7 / 317.9

Ceiling starters per week: 6, 6, 7, 7, 7 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Trafford

LEE v CHE (A)

18.8 xPts

24% for 10+

£5.0m · 94%

Gabriel

ARS v NEW (A)

20.6 xPts

15% for 10+

£8.0m · 94%

Hill

BOU v NFO (H)

18.2 xPts

13% for 10+

£5.6m · 94%

De Cuyper

BHA v HUL (A)

17.6 xPts

17% for 10+

£5.4m · 91%

Van Hecke

TOT v IPS (H)

17.5 xPts

16% for 10+

£5.0m · 94%

Ajayi

HUL v BHA (H)

15.3 xPts

1% for 10+

£4.2m · 84%

Rayan

BOU v NFO (H)

19.8 xPts

15% for 10+

£6.3m · 88%

Tavernier

BOU v NFO (H)

19.1 xPts

30% for 10+

£6.6m · 91%

Neto

CHE v LEE (H)

19.0 xPts

16% for 10+

£6.6m · 89%

Haaland

MCI v FUL (H)

24.9 xPts x2

22% for 10+

£15.8m · 96%

N.Jackson

AVL v SUN (H)

19.0 xPts

15% for 10+

£7.0m · 91%

Bench, in order

Kinsky

TOT v IPS (H)

16.4 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.4m · 95%

Rogers

CHE v LEE (H)

22.7 xPts

6% for 10+

£8.2m · 93%

Slater

HUL v BHA (H)

14.4 xPts

1% for 10+

£4.5m · 80%

Thomas-Asante

COV v CRY (H)

8.8 xPts

1% for 10+

£5.0m · 52%

Armband: Haaland wears it in Gameweek 11; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Head to head: Trafford faces Neto in GW11 (LEE v CHE), Ajayi faces De Cuyper in GW11 (HUL v BHA), Haaland faces Gabriel in GW12 (MCI v ARS). These survived because the cost charged for them inside the objective was still smaller than the points gained.

Projected points, week by week, armband included

Starting eleven All fifteen

Each week the armband goes to the starter with the best chance of a 10+ score, not simply the highest average, because captaincy doubles a range of outcomes.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
11	Haaland 22%	Trafford, Gabriel, Hill, Van Hecke, De Cuyper, Ajayi, Rayan, Neto, Tavernier, Haaland, N.Jackson	46.0	-4.4	46.6
12	Haaland 21%	Trafford, Gabriel, De Cuyper, Hill, Ajayi, Van Hecke, Rayan, Neto, Tavernier, Haaland, N.Jackson	45.2	-7.3	42.9
13	Haaland 23%	Trafford, Gabriel, Hill, Van Hecke, De Cuyper, Ajayi, Rayan, Tavernier, Neto, Haaland, N.Jackson	49.2	-14.4	39.9
14	Haaland 21%	Trafford, Gabriel, Hill, Van Hecke, De Cuyper, Ajayi, Neto, Rayan, Tavernier, Haaland, N.Jackson	48.0	-8.2	44.7
15	Haaland 22%	Trafford, Gabriel, De Cuyper, Hill, Van Hecke, Ajayi, Rayan, Tavernier, Neto, Haaland, N.Jackson	46.3	-15.4	35.8
Total					210.0

Closest alternative squads

200.5(-9.5)Trafford, Neto, N.Jackson, Gabriel, Hillout,Raya, Groß, Evanilson, Bogle, Virgilin
197.0(-13.0)Trafford, N.Jackson, Gabriel, Hillout,Raya, Evanilson, Bogle, Tarkowskiin
196.9(-13.1)Trafford, Ajayi, Rayan, N.Jackson, Van Heckeout,Raya, Groß, Evanilson, Davis, Boglein

Moves after the wildcard, one a week

GW12N.JacksontoThiago£7.8m · 92% to start · worth 2.5 points over the rest of the window
GW13NetotoRice£7.4m · 91% to start · worth 1.2 points over the rest of the window
GW14Van HecketoMurillo£5.5m · 90% to start · worth 0.7 points over the rest of the window
GW15TaverniertoIwobi£5.4m · 90% to start · worth 0.6 points over the rest of the window

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Free hit draft for Gameweek 11

Solved for this gameweek alone, with every pound pushed into the eleven. A free hit lasts one week, so the bench here is only there to make the squad legal.

Formation

3-4-3

Spend

£95.7m£4.3m left

Starting eleven

47.2 xPts

Armband

Haaland

Objective: for this gameweek,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 52.3.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 35.1 on the same objective (42.1 average for its eleven), so this draft is 17.2 ahead.

4+ a week

2 of 15

Real upside

715%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

47.2 / 64.3

Ceiling starters per week: 6 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Trafford

LEE v CHE (A)

3.9 xPts

24% for 10+

£5.0m · 94%

Gabriel

ARS v NEW (A)

4.0 xPts

15% for 10+

£8.0m · 94%

Van Hecke

TOT v IPS (H)

3.5 xPts

16% for 10+

£5.0m · 94%

Konsa

ARS v NEW (A)

3.3 xPts

24% for 10+

£4.8m · 89%

Rayan

BOU v NFO (H)

3.9 xPts

15% for 10+

£6.3m · 88%

Dewsbury-Hall

EVE v BRE (A)

3.8 xPts

14% for 10+

£6.6m · 84%

Doku

MCI v FUL (H)

3.8 xPts

13% for 10+

£7.5m · 82%

Tavernier

BOU v NFO (H)

3.7 xPts

30% for 10+

£6.6m · 91%

Haaland

MCI v FUL (H)

5.0 xPts x2

22% for 10+

£15.8m · 96%

N.Jackson

AVL v SUN (H)

3.7 xPts

15% for 10+

£7.0m · 91%

Evanilson

BOU v NFO (H)

3.7 xPts

16% for 10+

£6.4m · 89%

Bench, in order

Kinsky

TOT v IPS (H)

3.1 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.4m · 95%

Diop

IPS v TOT (A)

2.4 xPts

0% for 10+

£3.9m · 88%

van Ewijk

COV v CRY (H)

2.3 xPts

1% for 10+

£3.9m · 81%

Slater

HUL v BHA (H)

2.7 xPts

1% for 10+

£4.5m · 80%

Armband: Haaland wears it in Gameweek 11; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
11	Haaland 22%	Trafford, Gabriel, Van Hecke, Konsa, Rayan, Dewsbury-Hall, Doku, Tavernier, Haaland, N.Jackson, Evanilson	47.2	0	52.3
Total					52.3

Closest alternative squads

51.1(-1.2)Trafford, Evanilson, Slaterout,Raya, Neto, Thomas-Asantein
50.9(-1.4)Rayanout,Großin
50.8(-1.5)Evanilson, Dewsbury-Hall, van Ewijkout,Hill, Groß, Thomas-Asantein

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Best GKP picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

RayaARS · GKP · £6.2m · 47.1% ownedNEW (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A)19.4 xPts
TraffordLEE · GKP · £5.0m · 6.3% ownedCHE (A) · COV (H) · MCI (A)18.8 xPts
PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 8.5% ownedBRE (A) · LIV (H) · AVL (A)18.2 xPts
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.3% ownedFUL (H) · ARS (A) · LEE (H)17.3 xPts

Best DEF picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

GabrielARS · DEF · £8.0m · 25.4% ownedNEW (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A)20.6 xPts
MurilloNFO · DEF · £5.5m · 2.0% ownedBOU (A) · CHE (H) · HUL (A)18.3 xPts
HillBOU · DEF · £5.6m · 2.7% ownedNFO (H) · FUL (A) · BHA (H)18.2 xPts
CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.9m · 48.6% ownedNEW (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A)17.7 xPts

Best MID picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

RogersCHE · MID · £8.2m · 53.7% ownedLEE (H) · NFO (A) · CRY (H)22.7 xPts
RiceARS · MID · £7.4m · 13.5% ownedNEW (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A)21.5 xPts
MbeumoMUN · MID · £7.9m · 19.8% ownedLIV (A) · BRE (H) · NEW (A)21.4 xPts
Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.7% ownedBRE (A) · LIV (H) · AVL (A)20.0 xPts

Best FWD picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

HaalandMCI · FWD · £15.8m · 79.2% ownedFUL (H) · ARS (A) · LEE (H)24.9 xPts
ThiagoBRE · FWD · £7.8m · 9.0% ownedEVE (H) · MUN (A) · ARS (H)22.0 xPts
EvanilsonBOU · FWD · £6.4m · 21.9% ownedNFO (H) · FUL (A) · BHA (H)19.0 xPts
N.JacksonAVL · FWD · £7.0m · 28.4% ownedSUN (H) · IPS (A) · EVE (H)19.0 xPts

Outliers: due a return

These players have created far more than they have scored or assisted. That gap usually closes, and the price often has not caught up yet.

GonzaloFUL · FWD · £5.9m · 3.9% ownedMCI (A) · BOU (H) · TOT (A)+3.7
BarryEVE · FWD · £5.6m · 8.8% ownedBRE (A) · LIV (H) · AVL (A)+2.8
BobbFUL · MID · £5.5m · 0.5% ownedMCI (A) · BOU (H) · TOT (A)+2.4
ØdegaardARS · MID · £6.7m · 16.4% ownedNEW (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A)+2.3
McAteeNFO · MID · £5.5m · 0.1% ownedBOU (A) · CHE (H) · HUL (A)+2.3
DelapNFO · FWD · £5.4m · 1.4% ownedBOU (A) · CHE (H) · HUL (A)+2.2
RayanBOU · MID · £6.3m · 2.4% ownedNFO (H) · FUL (A) · BHA (H)+2.1
IwobiFUL · MID · £5.4m · 1.5% ownedMCI (A) · BOU (H) · TOT (A)+2.1

Outliers: running hot

Scoring well above their underlying numbers. Not a sell on its own, but be careful paying a premium for a run that the chances do not support.

GroßBHA · MID · £6.2m · 47.3% ownedHUL (A) · NEW (H) · BOU (A)-5.3
KostoulasBHA · FWD · £5.8m · 10.3% ownedHUL (A) · NEW (H) · BOU (A)-4.5
BelloumiHUL · MID · £5.3m · 9.9% ownedBHA (H) · CRY (A) · NFO (H)-3.8
EvanilsonBOU · FWD · £6.4m · 21.9% ownedNFO (H) · FUL (A) · BHA (H)-3.4
PalmerCHE · MID · £9.8m · 28.5% ownedLEE (H) · NFO (A) · CRY (H)-3.4
GvardiolMCI · DEF · £5.7m · 25.3% ownedFUL (H) · ARS (A) · LEE (H)-3.2

Differentials under 8% owned

Where the rank is won. Strong five-gameweek projections that most of your mini-league does not own.

Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.7% ownedBRE (A) · LIV (H) · AVL (A)20.0 xPts
RayanBOU · MID · £6.3m · 2.4% ownedNFO (H) · FUL (A) · BHA (H)19.8 xPts
NetoCHE · MID · £6.6m · 5.1% ownedLEE (H) · NFO (A) · CRY (H)19.0 xPts
IwobiFUL · MID · £5.4m · 1.5% ownedMCI (A) · BOU (H) · TOT (A)18.9 xPts
TraffordLEE · GKP · £5.0m · 6.3% ownedCHE (A) · COV (H) · MCI (A)18.8 xPts
McBurnieHUL · FWD · £5.5m · 1.8% ownedBHA (H) · CRY (A) · NFO (H)18.4 xPts

Best value under £6.0m

Most projected points per million spent, the picks that free up money elsewhere in your squad.

DavisIPS · DEF · £4.0m · 6.8% ownedTOT (A) · AVL (H) · COV (A)3.8 /£m
TraffordLEE · GKP · £5.0m · 6.3% ownedCHE (A) · COV (H) · MCI (A)3.8 /£m
KinskyTOT · GKP · £4.4m · 15.5% ownedIPS (H) · SUN (A) · FUL (H)3.7 /£m
BogleLEE · DEF · £4.8m · 11.0% ownedCHE (A) · COV (H) · MCI (A)3.7 /£m
AjayiHUL · DEF · £4.2m · 12.1% ownedBHA (H) · CRY (A) · NFO (H)3.6 /£m
AjerBRE · DEF · £4.5m · 4.1% ownedEVE (H) · MUN (A) · ARS (H)3.6 /£m

Defensive contribution engines

Players clearing the defensive contribution threshold most regularly, so the two bonus points land more often than not.

DisasiCRY · DEF · £4.4m · 0.1% ownedCOV (A) · HUL (H) · CHE (A)2.40x
MendyHUL · DEF · £4.1m · 4.6% ownedBHA (H) · CRY (A) · NFO (H)2.17x
PinnockCOV · DEF · £4.5m · 0.1% ownedCRY (H) · LEE (A) · IPS (H)1.99x
RichardsCRY · DEF · £4.9m · 0.5% ownedCOV (A) · HUL (H) · CHE (A)1.94x
AffengruberFUL · DEF · £4.5m · 0.6% ownedMCI (A) · BOU (H) · TOT (A)1.89x
HillBOU · DEF · £5.6m · 2.7% ownedNFO (H) · FUL (A) · BHA (H)1.87x

Fixture swings over the next five

Kindest runs

Aston VillaSUN (H) · IPS (A) · EVE (H) · CRY (H) · COV (A)2.20
Coventry CityCRY (H) · LEE (A) · IPS (H) · MUN (A) · AVL (H)2.60
SpursIPS (H) · SUN (A) · FUL (H) · ARS (H) · HUL (A)2.60
BrightonHUL (A) · NEW (H) · BOU (A) · NFO (A) · EVE (H)2.80
Crystal PalaceCOV (A) · HUL (H) · CHE (A) · AVL (A) · MUN (H)2.80

Toughest runs

Man CityFUL (H) · ARS (A) · LEE (H) · BRE (A) · CHE (H)3.60
ArsenalNEW (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A) · TOT (A) · BOU (H)3.40
BournemouthNFO (H) · FUL (A) · BHA (H) · HUL (H) · ARS (A)3.40
BrentfordEVE (H) · MUN (A) · ARS (H) · MCI (H) · FUL (A)3.40
EvertonBRE (A) · LIV (H) · AVL (A) · FUL (H) · BHA (A)3.40

Lower is easier. Scores are the official fixture difficulty ratings averaged over the next five games.

What the market is doing this week

Most bought

N.Jackson AVL+3k
Evanilson BOU+2k
Van Hecke TOT+2k
Tavernier BOU+2k
Isak LIV+1k

Most sold

João Pedro CHE-4k
Calvert-Lewin LEE-2k
Hall NEW-1k
Cherki MCI-1k
Wissa NEW-1k

Net transfers this gameweek. Heavy buying usually means a price rise is close. See price changes.

Availability watch

Widely owned players carrying an injury, suspension or rotation flag. These are already discounted in the projections and never suggested as a buy.

João PedroCHE · 34.6% owned · InjuredThigh injury - Unknown return date
Calvert-LewinLEE · 18.5% owned · 75% chance to playFoot injury - 75% chance of playing
ThomasCOV · 7.6% owned · 50% chance to playCalf injury - 50% chance of playing
SakaARS · 5.8% owned · InjuredThigh injury - Unknown return date
SemenyoMCI · 5.8% owned · InjuredKnee injury - Unknown return date

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