Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 4?

B.Fernandes (MUN) leads Armband's Gameweek 4 projections with 5.1 expected points, ahead of Haaland on 4.9. Projections come from team attack and defence ratings built on actual results, expected goals and assists, clean-sheet odds and start probability.

Who should I transfer in for FPL Gameweek 4?

Raya (ARS, £6.1m) has the highest projected return over the next five gameweeks at 18.1 expected points. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are excluded from transfer-in suggestions.

Which FPL players are due a return in Gameweek 4?

Thiago (BRE), Gonzalo (FUL), Barry (EVE) are the biggest underperformers against their expected goals and assists, which historically corrects.

Armband

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Gameweek 4 briefing

FPL Gameweek 4: the transfer, the armband and the outliers

B.Fernandes (MUN) leads the Gameweek 4 projections on 5.1 expected points, with Haaland on 4.9 as the safer runner-up. Below: the strongest buys in each position, the players whose underlying numbers say a return is overdue, the fixture runs turning kind, and where the market is heading. Deadline: Saturday 12 September at 12:30 UTC.

Captain picks for Gameweek 4

Ranked highest first on the Armband score, the one number that also picks the captain in the drafts below: projected points blended with recent scoring (capped at 1.5 times the projection), rewarded for a reliable floor and for the chance of a 10+ score, and marked down for wild swings or for running hot.

B.Fernandes tops the projections for this gameweek at 5.1 points, and that is the number you will see on the player pages. He is not the armband because a captain doubles one score: Haaland scores higher once floor and 10+ chance are counted.

1.HaalandMCI · FWD · 73.7% owned7.5 Armband
4.9 projected · 25% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 13 · 9Returns: 2/3 starts · penalties
Highest floor of your realistic options. Returned in 2 of his last 3 starts, median 9 points, and he takes the penalties.
2.SakaARS · MID · 13.5% owned6.0 Armband
3.8 projected · 21% for 10+Last 4: 9 · 11 · 2Returns: 2/3 starts · penalties
On penalties, returned in 2 of his last 3 starts, median 9 points.
3.ØdegaardARS · MID · 19.8% owned5.9 Armband
3.3 projected · 37% for 10+Last 4: 11 · 3 · 10Returns: 2/3 starts
Returned in 2 of his last 3 starts, median 10 points, 19.8% owned.
4.B.FernandesMUN · MID · 38.6% owned5.8 Armband
5.1 projected · 29% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 23 · 2Returns: 1/3 starts · penalties
On penalties, returned in 1 of his last 3 starts, median 2 points.
5.MbeumoMUN · MID · 20.7% owned5.6 Armband
3.5 projected · 27% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 11 · 8Returns: 2/3 starts
Returned in 2 of his last 3 starts, median 8 points, 20.7% owned.

Wildcard draft for Gameweek 4

A full fifteen built from scratch inside £100.0m, picked for the next 5 gameweeks rather than this one alone. Three players per club and the usual position quotas; doubtful players are included only when their official chance of playing is at least 50%.

Formation

4-4-2

Spend

£100.0m£0.0m left

Best eleven, 5 weeks

253.3 xPts

Armband

Haaland

Objective: for each of Gameweeks 4 to 8,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 272.8.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 242.7 on the same objective (242.0 average for its eleven), so this draft is 30.1 ahead.

4+ a week

5 of 15

Real upside

615%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

253.3 / 348.1

Ceiling starters per week: 6, 6, 6, 6, 6 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Raya

ARS v SUN (A)

18.1 xPts

0% for 10+

£6.1m · 87%

Guéhi

MCI v MUN (A)

18.1 xPts

21% for 10+

£6.0m · 79%

Rúben

MCI v MUN (A)

17.2 xPts

3% for 10+

£5.5m · 54%

N.Williams

NFO v AVL (A)

16.8 xPts

2% for 10+

£5.0m · 74%

Justin

LEE v NEW (H)

14.7 xPts

9% for 10+

£4.5m · 52%

Saka

ARS v SUN (A)

25.1 xPts

23% for 10+

£9.5m · 80%

Rogers

CHE v HUL (H)

22.3 xPts

13% for 10+

£7.7m · 85%

Gibbs-White

NFO v AVL (A)

20.6 xPts

22% for 10+

£8.0m · 81%

Groß

BHA v COV (A)

17.5 xPts

20% for 10+

£5.8m · 80%

Haaland

MCI v MUN (A)

30.5 xPts x2

28% for 10+

£15.6m · 84%

João Pedro

CHE v HUL (H)

21.6 xPts

22% for 10+

£7.7m · 81%

75% chance to play

Bench, in order

Petrović

BOU v BRE (H)

14.6 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.5m · 54%

Egan

HUL v CHE (A)

13.4 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.1m · 54%

Hughes

CRY v IPS (H)

4.6 xPts

2% for 10+

£4.4m · 65%

Barry

EVE v TOT (A)

15.2 xPts

9% for 10+

£5.6m · 65%

Armband: Haaland wears it in Gameweek 4; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Head to head: Raya faces Groß in GW5 (ARS v BHA), Saka faces Groß in GW5 (ARS v BHA), Saka faces Gibbs-White in GW7 (ARS v NFO). These survived because the cost charged for them inside the objective was still smaller than the points gained.

Projected points, week by week, armband included

Starting eleven All fifteen

Each week the armband goes to the starter with the best chance of a 10+ score, not simply the highest average, because captaincy doubles a range of outcomes.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
4	Haaland 25%	Raya, Guéhi, N.Williams, Rúben, Justin, Rogers, Saka, Gibbs-White, Groß, Haaland, João Pedro	43.0	0	48.2
5	Haaland 33%	Raya, Rúben, Guéhi, N.Williams, Saka, Gibbs-White, Rogers, Groß, Haaland, João Pedro, Barry	59.3	-4.5	61.1
6	Haaland 27%	Raya, Guéhi, Rúben, N.Williams, Egan, Saka, Rogers, Gibbs-White, Groß, Haaland, João Pedro	49.1	0	54.6
7	Haaland 29%	Petrović, Guéhi, Rúben, N.Williams, Justin, Saka, Rogers, Gibbs-White, Groß, Haaland, João Pedro	52.0	-4.5	53.4
8	Haaland 26%	Raya, Guéhi, Rúben, N.Williams, Egan, Saka, Rogers, Gibbs-White, Groß, Haaland, João Pedro	49.9	0	55.5
Total					272.8

Closest alternative squads

265.5(-7.3)Egan, Barry, Groß, Gibbs-White, N.Williamsout,Diop, Scott, Dewsbury-Hall, Calvert-Lewin, Hallin
253.0(-19.8)Guéhi, Rúben, Egan, Barry, Groß, Rogers, Gibbs-White, Justinout,Dewsbury-Hall, Barnes, Palmer, Calvert-Lewin, Calafiori, De Cuyper, Diop, Davisin
244.8(-28.0)Guéhi, Rúben, Barry, Saka, Groß, N.Williamsout,Bogle, Palmer, Semenyo, Calvert-Lewin, Mitchell, Ajayiin

Moves after the wildcard, one a week

GW6BarrytoMcBurnie£5.5m · 36% to start · worth 0.8 points over the rest of the window
GW8GuéhitoCalafiori£5.8m · 86% to start · worth 0.6 points over the rest of the window

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Free hit draft for Gameweek 4

Solved for this gameweek alone, with every pound pushed into the eleven. A free hit lasts one week, so the bench here is only there to make the squad legal.

Formation

4-4-2

Spend

£98.1m£1.9m left

Starting eleven

44.3 xPts

Armband

Haaland

Objective: for this gameweek,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 47.4.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 28.4 on the same objective (41.8 average for its eleven), so this draft is 19.0 ahead.

4+ a week

2 of 15

Real upside

715%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

44.3 / 62.5

Ceiling starters per week: 7 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Raya

ARS v SUN (A)

3.8 xPts

0% for 10+

£6.1m · 87%

Calafiori

ARS v SUN (A)

3.8 xPts

22% for 10+

£5.8m · 86%

Lacroix

CHE v HUL (H)

3.6 xPts

2% for 10+

£5.9m · 72%

Gvardiol

MCI v MUN (A)

3.2 xPts

2% for 10+

£5.7m · 79%

Mendy

HUL v CHE (A)

1.9 xPts

13% for 10+

£4.1m · 54%

Cherki

MCI v MUN (A)

3.6 xPts

38% for 10+

£7.8m · 81%

Gibbs-White

NFO v AVL (A)

3.5 xPts

20% for 10+

£8.0m · 81%

Gakpo

LIV v FUL (H)

3.5 xPts

35% for 10+

£7.2m · 80%

Groß

BHA v COV (A)

3.4 xPts

20% for 10+

£5.8m · 80%

Haaland

MCI v MUN (A)

4.9 xPts x2

25% for 10+

£15.6m · 84%

João Pedro

CHE v HUL (H)

4.5 xPts

23% for 10+

£7.7m · 81%

75% chance to play

Bench, in order

Verbruggen

BHA v COV (A)

2.7 xPts

1% for 10+

£4.5m · 78%

Diop

IPS v CRY (A)

1.7 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.0m · 52%

Hughes

CRY v IPS (H)

2.3 xPts

4% for 10+

£4.4m · 65%

Emersonn

IPS v CRY (A)

2.1 xPts

3% for 10+

£5.5m · 51%

Armband: Haaland wears it in Gameweek 4; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Head to head: João Pedro faces Mendy in GW4 (CHE v HUL), Lacroix faces Mendy in GW4 (CHE v HUL). These survived because the cost charged for them inside the objective was still smaller than the points gained.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
4	Haaland 25%	Raya, Calafiori, Lacroix, Gvardiol, Mendy, Cherki, Gibbs-White, Gakpo, Groß, Haaland, João Pedro	44.3	-2.3	47.4
Total					47.4

Closest alternative squads

45.9(-1.5)João Pedro, Gvardiol, Gibbs-White, Großout,Saka, Isak, Guéhi, Slaterin
45.6(-1.8)João Pedro, Calafiori, Lacroix, Gvardiol, Gibbs-White, Groß, Diopout,Saka, Isak, Guéhi, Virgil, De Cuyper, Ajayi, Slaterin
44.9(-2.5)Lacroix, Gvardiol, Gibbs-White, Großout,Rogers, De Cuyper, Cash, Sakain

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Best GKP picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

RayaARS · GKP · £6.1m · 42.2% ownedSUN (A) · BHA (A) · LEE (H)18.1 xPts
PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 9.1% ownedTOT (A) · IPS (H) · HUL (A)17.6 xPts
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)17.6 xPts
A.BeckerLIV · GKP · £5.5m · 4.0% ownedFUL (H) · BOU (A) · MCI (H)17.1 xPts

Best DEF picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

GabrielARS · DEF · £8.0m · 22.8% ownedSUN (A) · BHA (A) · LEE (H)20.1 xPts
CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.8m · 50.6% ownedSUN (A) · BHA (A) · LEE (H)19.2 xPts
TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.0% ownedTOT (A) · IPS (H) · HUL (A)18.9 xPts
GuéhiMCI · DEF · £6.0m · 18.3% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)18.1 xPts

Best MID picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

B.FernandesMUN · MID · £11.9m · 38.6% ownedMCI (H) · FUL (A) · TOT (H)30.6 xPts
SakaARS · MID · £9.5m · 13.5% ownedSUN (A) · BHA (A) · LEE (H)25.1 xPts
RogersCHE · MID · £7.7m · 40.4% ownedHUL (H) · BRE (A) · BOU (H)22.3 xPts
SemenyoMCI · MID · £8.4m · 15.5% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)22.1 xPts

Best FWD picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

HaalandMCI · FWD · £15.6m · 73.7% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)30.4 xPts
IsakLIV · FWD · £9.1m · 22.4% ownedFUL (H) · BOU (A) · MCI (H)21.3 xPts
HavertzARS · FWD · £7.6m · 8.5% ownedSUN (A) · BHA (A) · LEE (H)18.3 xPts
WissaNEW · FWD · £6.2m · 18.7% ownedLEE (A) · HUL (H) · COV (A)17.2 xPts

Outliers: due a return

These players have created far more than they have scored or assisted. That gap usually closes, and the price often has not caught up yet.

ThiagoBRE · FWD · £7.8m · 9.0% ownedBOU (A) · CHE (H) · AVL (A)+2.3
GonzaloFUL · FWD · £6.0m · 3.8% ownedLIV (A) · MUN (H) · IPS (A)+1.9
BarryEVE · FWD · £5.6m · 8.2% ownedTOT (A) · IPS (H) · HUL (A)+1.6
E.Le FéeSUN · MID · £5.7m · 3.4% ownedARS (H) · MCI (A) · BHA (H)+1.4
O'ReillyMCI · DEF · £6.3m · 11.0% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)+1.3
SzoboszlaiLIV · MID · £7.0m · 33.1% ownedFUL (H) · BOU (A) · MCI (H)+1.2
SakaARS · MID · £9.5m · 13.5% ownedSUN (A) · BHA (A) · LEE (H)+1.2
MbeumoMUN · MID · £7.9m · 20.7% ownedMCI (H) · FUL (A) · TOT (H)+0.9

Outliers: running hot

Scoring well above their underlying numbers. Not a sell on its own, but be careful paying a premium for a run that the chances do not support.

GroßBHA · MID · £5.8m · 28.0% ownedCOV (A) · ARS (H) · SUN (A)-4.4
SemenyoMCI · MID · £8.4m · 15.5% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)-3.5
SchadeBRE · MID · £6.2m · 10.9% ownedBOU (A) · CHE (H) · AVL (A)-3.2
GvardiolMCI · DEF · £5.7m · 26.6% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)-3.0
CherkiMCI · MID · £7.8m · 28.3% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)-2.7
De CuyperBHA · DEF · £4.9m · 27.4% ownedCOV (A) · ARS (H) · SUN (A)-1.8

Differentials under 8% owned

Where the rank is won. Strong five-gameweek projections that most of your mini-league does not own.

Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% ownedTOT (A) · IPS (H) · HUL (A)19.6 xPts
BarnesNEW · MID · £6.1m · 5.5% ownedLEE (A) · HUL (H) · COV (A)18.1 xPts
WirtzLIV · MID · £7.3m · 5.8% ownedFUL (H) · BOU (A) · MCI (H)17.9 xPts
StachLEE · MID · £6.0m · 2.5% ownedNEW (H) · CRY (H) · ARS (A)17.7 xPts
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)17.6 xPts
AndersonMCI · MID · £6.3m · 4.0% ownedMUN (A) · SUN (H) · LIV (A)17.6 xPts

Best value under £6.0m

Most projected points per million spent, the picks that free up money elsewhere in your squad.

KinskyTOT · GKP · £4.5m · 17.4% ownedEVE (H) · AVL (H) · MUN (A)3.4 /£m
N.WilliamsNFO · DEF · £5.0m · 8.8% ownedAVL (A) · COV (H) · CRY (A)3.4 /£m
SlaterHUL · MID · £4.5m · 5.3% ownedCHE (A) · NEW (A) · EVE (H)3.3 /£m
TraffordLEE · GKP · £5.0m · 5.5% ownedNEW (H) · CRY (H) · ARS (A)3.3 /£m
AjayiHUL · DEF · £4.2m · 14.0% ownedCHE (A) · NEW (A) · EVE (H)3.3 /£m
CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.8m · 50.6% ownedSUN (A) · BHA (A) · LEE (H)3.3 /£m

Defensive contribution engines

Players clearing the defensive contribution threshold most regularly, so the two bonus points land more often than not.

LacroixCHE · DEF · £5.9m · 6.8% ownedHUL (H) · BRE (A) · BOU (H)1.94x
MuharemovićLEE · DEF · £5.0m · 4.3% ownedNEW (H) · CRY (H) · ARS (A)1.93x
BranthwaiteEVE · DEF · £5.5m · 2.4% ownedTOT (A) · IPS (H) · HUL (A)1.80x
TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.0% ownedTOT (A) · IPS (H) · HUL (A)1.70x
AjerBRE · DEF · £4.5m · 3.9% ownedBOU (A) · CHE (H) · AVL (A)1.67x
VirgilLIV · DEF · £6.5m · 16.2% ownedFUL (H) · BOU (A) · MCI (H)1.60x

Fixture swings over the next five

Kindest runs

Coventry CityBHA (H) · NFO (A) · NEW (H) · TOT (A) · FUL (H)2.40
Crystal PalaceIPS (H) · LEE (A) · NFO (H) · BHA (A) · NEW (H)2.60
NewcastleLEE (A) · HUL (H) · COV (A) · AVL (H) · CRY (A)2.60
ArsenalSUN (A) · BHA (A) · LEE (H) · NFO (A) · EVE (H)2.80
ChelseaHUL (H) · BRE (A) · BOU (H) · EVE (A) · TOT (H)2.80

Toughest runs

BournemouthBRE (H) · LIV (H) · CHE (A) · SUN (H) · MUN (A)3.40
BrentfordBOU (A) · CHE (H) · AVL (A) · LIV (H) · HUL (A)3.40
LeedsNEW (H) · CRY (H) · ARS (A) · MUN (H) · SUN (A)3.40
Aston VillaNFO (H) · TOT (A) · BRE (H) · NEW (A) · MCI (H)3.20
BrightonCOV (A) · ARS (H) · SUN (A) · CRY (H) · LIV (A)3.20

Lower is easier. Scores are the official fixture difficulty ratings averaged over the next five games.

What the market is doing this week

Most bought

Groß BHA+693k
Schade BRE+318k
Kostoulas BHA+251k
De Cuyper BHA+232k
Hall NEW+199k

Most sold

João Pedro CHE-296k
Szoboszlai LIV-154k
Elanga NEW-151k
B.Fernandes MUN-141k
M.Sangaré BRE-119k

Net transfers this gameweek. Heavy buying usually means a price rise is close. See price changes.

Availability watch

Widely owned players carrying an injury, suspension or rotation flag. These are already discounted in the projections and never suggested as a buy.

João PedroCHE · 65.6% owned · 75% chance to playKnee injury - 75% chance of playing
PalmerCHE · 26.0% owned · 75% chance to playMuscular injury - 75% chance of playing
RiceARS · 11.9% owned · 75% chance to playUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
van EwijkCOV · 8.9% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Pedro PorroTOT · 7.7% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
JamesCHE · 5.9% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
WhiteARS · 5.0% owned · 75% chance to playGroin injury - 75% chance of playing

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