FPL Gameweek 5: the transfer, the armband and the outliers

Captain picks for Gameweek 5

Ranked highest first on the Armband score, the one number that also picks the captain in the drafts below: projected points blended with recent scoring (capped at 1.5 times the projection), rewarded for a reliable floor and for the chance of a 10+ score, and marked down for wild swings or for running hot.

1. 1.HaalandMCI · FWD · 73.7% owned10.8 Armband
   8.0 projected · 31% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 13 · 9 · 9Returns: 3/4 starts · penalties

   Highest floor of your realistic options. Returned in 3 of his last 4 starts, median 9 points, and he takes the penalties.

2. 2.SakaARS · MID · 13.5% owned9.5 Armband
   6.3 projected · 29% for 10+Last 4: 9 · 11 · 2 · 8Returns: 3/4 starts · penalties

   On penalties, returned in 3 of his last 4 starts, median 9 points.

3. 3.Gibbs-WhiteNFO · MID · 15.7% owned6.6 Armband
   4.6 projected · 25% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 13 · 3 · 8Returns: 2/4 starts · penalties

   On penalties, returned in 2 of his last 4 starts, median 6 points.

4. 4.ØdegaardARS · MID · 19.8% owned6.3 Armband
   3.8 projected · 34% for 10+Last 4: 11 · 3 · 10 · 3Returns: 2/4 starts

   Returned in 2 of his last 4 starts, median 7 points, 19.8% owned.

5. 5.Calvert-LewinLEE · FWD · 24.9% owned6.2 Armband
   4.8 projected · 23% for 10+Last 4: 1 · 8 · 1 · 10Returns: 2/4 starts · penalties

   On penalties, returned in 2 of his last 4 starts, median 5 points.

Wildcard draft for Gameweek 5

A full fifteen built from scratch inside £100.0m, picked for the next 5 gameweeks rather than this one alone. Three players per club and the usual position quotas; doubtful players are included only when their official chance of playing is at least 50%.

Objective: for each of Gameweeks 5 to 9,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 273.8.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 252.4 on the same objective (248.6 average for its eleven), so this draft is 21.4 ahead.

Ceiling starters per week: 6, 7, 7, 7, 7 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Armband: Haaland wears it in Gameweek 5; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Head to head: Pickford faces Ajayi in GW6 (EVE v HUL), Pickford faces Egan in GW6 (EVE v HUL), Pickford faces Giles in GW6 (EVE v HUL). These survived because the cost charged for them inside the objective was still smaller than the points gained.

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Free hit draft for Gameweek 5

Solved for this gameweek alone, with every pound pushed into the eleven. A free hit lasts one week, so the bench here is only there to make the squad legal.

Objective: for this gameweek,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 69.1.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 53.2 on the same objective (52.8 average for its eleven), so this draft is 15.9 ahead.

Ceiling starters per week: 8 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Armband: Haaland wears it in Gameweek 5; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Best GKP picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

• DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedSUN (H) · LIV (A) · IPS (H)18.0 xPts
• PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 9.1% ownedIPS (H) · HUL (A) · CHE (H)17.9 xPts
• A.BeckerLIV · GKP · £5.5m · 4.0% ownedBOU (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A)17.9 xPts
• RayaARS · GKP · £6.1m · 42.2% ownedBHA (A) · LEE (H) · NFO (A)17.7 xPts

Best DEF picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

• GabrielARS · DEF · £8.0m · 22.8% ownedBHA (A) · LEE (H) · NFO (A)20.7 xPts
• TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.0% ownedIPS (H) · HUL (A) · CHE (H)19.3 xPts
• CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.8m · 50.6% ownedBHA (A) · LEE (H) · NFO (A)19.1 xPts
• RúbenMCI · DEF · £5.5m · 1.9% ownedSUN (H) · LIV (A) · IPS (H)18.7 xPts

Best MID picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

• B.FernandesMUN · MID · £11.9m · 38.6% ownedFUL (A) · TOT (H) · LEE (A)31.6 xPts
• SakaARS · MID · £9.5m · 13.5% ownedBHA (A) · LEE (H) · NFO (A)26.1 xPts
• SemenyoMCI · MID · £8.4m · 15.5% ownedSUN (H) · LIV (A) · IPS (H)22.7 xPts
• RogersCHE · MID · £7.7m · 40.4% ownedBRE (A) · BOU (H) · EVE (A)22.2 xPts

Best FWD picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

• HaalandMCI · FWD · £15.6m · 73.7% ownedSUN (H) · LIV (A) · IPS (H)31.6 xPts
• IsakLIV · FWD · £9.1m · 22.4% ownedBOU (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A)22.4 xPts
• HavertzARS · FWD · £7.6m · 8.5% ownedBHA (A) · LEE (H) · NFO (A)19.2 xPts
• WissaNEW · FWD · £6.2m · 18.7% ownedHUL (H) · COV (A) · AVL (H)17.8 xPts

Outliers: due a return

These players have created far more than they have scored or assisted. That gap usually closes, and the price often has not caught up yet.

• ThiagoBRE · FWD · £7.8m · 9.0% ownedCHE (H) · AVL (A) · LIV (H)+2.3
• RudoniCOV · MID · £4.9m · 0.1% ownedNFO (A) · NEW (H) · TOT (A)+2.0
• GonzaloFUL · FWD · £6.0m · 3.8% ownedMUN (H) · IPS (A) · HUL (H)+1.9
• BobbFUL · MID · £5.5m · 0.3% ownedMUN (H) · IPS (A) · HUL (H)+1.7
• BarryEVE · FWD · £5.6m · 8.2% ownedIPS (H) · HUL (A) · CHE (H)+1.6
• IwobiFUL · MID · £5.4m · 0.7% ownedMUN (H) · IPS (A) · HUL (H)+1.6
• E.Le FéeSUN · MID · £5.7m · 3.4% ownedMCI (A) · BHA (H) · BOU (A)+1.4
• McAteeNFO · MID · £5.5m · 0.1% ownedCOV (H) · CRY (A) · ARS (H)+1.3

Outliers: running hot

Scoring well above their underlying numbers. Not a sell on its own, but be careful paying a premium for a run that the chances do not support.

• GroßBHA · MID · £5.8m · 28.0% ownedARS (H) · SUN (A) · CRY (H)-4.4
• SemenyoMCI · MID · £8.4m · 15.5% ownedSUN (H) · LIV (A) · IPS (H)-3.5
• SchadeBRE · MID · £6.2m · 10.9% ownedCHE (H) · AVL (A) · LIV (H)-3.2
• GvardiolMCI · DEF · £5.7m · 26.6% ownedSUN (H) · LIV (A) · IPS (H)-3.0
• CherkiMCI · MID · £7.8m · 28.3% ownedSUN (H) · LIV (A) · IPS (H)-2.7
• De CuyperBHA · DEF · £4.9m · 27.4% ownedARS (H) · SUN (A) · CRY (H)-1.8

Differentials under 8% owned

Where the rank is won. Strong five-gameweek projections that most of your mini-league does not own.

• Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% ownedIPS (H) · HUL (A) · CHE (H)20.2 xPts
• StachLEE · MID · £6.0m · 2.5% ownedCRY (H) · ARS (A) · MUN (H)18.9 xPts
• RúbenMCI · DEF · £5.5m · 1.9% ownedSUN (H) · LIV (A) · IPS (H)18.7 xPts
• BarnesNEW · MID · £6.1m · 5.5% ownedHUL (H) · COV (A) · AVL (H)18.6 xPts
• WirtzLIV · MID · £7.3m · 5.8% ownedBOU (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A)18.3 xPts
• AndersonMCI · MID · £6.3m · 4.0% ownedSUN (H) · LIV (A) · IPS (H)18.2 xPts

Best value under £6.0m

Most projected points per million spent, the picks that free up money elsewhere in your squad.

• DavisIPS · DEF · £4.0m · 6.9% ownedEVE (A) · FUL (H) · MCI (A)3.8 /£m
• SlaterHUL · MID · £4.5m · 5.3% ownedNEW (A) · EVE (H) · FUL (A)3.6 /£m
• AjayiHUL · DEF · £4.2m · 14.0% ownedNEW (A) · EVE (H) · FUL (A)3.6 /£m
• EganHUL · DEF · £4.1m · 7.1% ownedNEW (A) · EVE (H) · FUL (A)3.6 /£m
• PetrovićBOU · GKP · £4.5m · 3.0% ownedLIV (H) · CHE (A) · SUN (H)3.6 /£m
• JustinLEE · DEF · £4.5m · 1.5% ownedCRY (H) · ARS (A) · MUN (H)3.6 /£m

Defensive contribution engines

Players clearing the defensive contribution threshold most regularly, so the two bonus points land more often than not.

• FofanaCHE · DEF · £5.0m · 0.2% ownedBRE (A) · BOU (H) · EVE (A)2.26x
• EganHUL · DEF · £4.1m · 7.1% ownedNEW (A) · EVE (H) · FUL (A)2.03x
• MukieleSUN · DEF · £5.4m · 1.9% ownedMCI (A) · BHA (H) · BOU (A)2.00x
• BotmanNEW · DEF · £5.0m · 0.7% ownedHUL (H) · COV (A) · AVL (H)1.97x
• LacroixCHE · DEF · £5.9m · 6.8% ownedBRE (A) · BOU (H) · EVE (A)1.94x
• MuharemovićLEE · DEF · £5.0m · 4.3% ownedCRY (H) · ARS (A) · MUN (H)1.93x

Fixture swings over the next five

Lower is easier. Scores are the official fixture difficulty ratings averaged over the next five games.

What the market is doing this week

Net transfers this gameweek. Heavy buying usually means a price rise is close. See price changes.

Availability watch

Widely owned players carrying an injury, suspension or rotation flag. These are already discounted in the projections and never suggested as a buy.

• João PedroCHE · 65.6% owned · 75% chance to playKnee injury - 75% chance of playing
• PalmerCHE · 26.0% owned · 75% chance to playMuscular injury - 75% chance of playing
• RiceARS · 11.9% owned · 75% chance to playUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
• van EwijkCOV · 8.9% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
• Pedro PorroTOT · 7.7% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
• JamesCHE · 5.9% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
• WhiteARS · 5.0% owned · 75% chance to playGroin injury - 75% chance of playing

Talk about Gameweek 5

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More for Gameweek 5

• Captain picks for Gameweek 5
• Differentials for Gameweek 5
• Budget defenders for Gameweek 5
• All gameweek briefings

See what this means for YOUR team

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