Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 2?

B.Fernandes (MUN) leads Armband's Gameweek 2 projections with 5.1 expected points, ahead of Haaland on 5.1. Projections come from team attack and defence ratings built on actual results, expected goals and assists, clean-sheet odds and start probability.

Who should I transfer in for FPL Gameweek 2?

Raya (ARS, £6.1m) has the highest projected return over the next five gameweeks at 19.4 expected points. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are excluded from transfer-in suggestions.

Which FPL players are due a return in Gameweek 2?

Thiago (BRE), Barry (EVE), E.Le Fée (SUN) are the biggest underperformers against their expected goals and assists, which historically corrects.

Armband

One move. Every deadline.

Gameweek 2 briefing

FPL Gameweek 2: the transfer, the armband and the outliers

B.Fernandes (MUN) leads the Gameweek 2 projections on 5.1 expected points, with Haaland on 5.1 as the safer runner-up. Below: the strongest buys in each position, the players whose underlying numbers say a return is overdue, the fixture runs turning kind, and where the market is heading. Deadline: Friday 28 August at 17:30 UTC.

Captain picks for Gameweek 2

Ranked highest first on the Armband score, the one number that also picks the captain in the drafts below: projected points blended with recent scoring (capped at 1.5 times the projection), rewarded for a reliable floor and for the chance of a 10+ score, and marked down for wild swings or for running hot.

B.Fernandes tops the projections for this gameweek at 5.1 points, and that is the number you will see on the player pages. He is not the armband because a captain doubles one score: Szoboszlai scores higher once floor and 10+ chance are counted.

1.SzoboszlaiLIV · MID · 33.0% owned5.3 Armband
4.3 projected · 2% for 10+Last 4: 8Returns: 1/1 starts · penalties
Highest floor of your realistic options. Returned in 1 of his last 1 starts, median 8 points, and he takes the penalties.
2.B.FernandesMUN · MID · 38.6% owned5.0 Armband
5.1 projected · 2% for 10+Last 4: 2Returns: 0/1 starts · penalties
On penalties, returned in 0 of his last 1 starts, median 2 points.
3.HaalandMCI · FWD · 73.7% owned4.9 Armband
5.1 projected · 1% for 10+Last 4: 2Returns: 0/1 starts · penalties
On penalties, returned in 0 of his last 1 starts, median 2 points.
4.TavernierBOU · MID · 6.7% owned4.8 Armband
3.4 projected · 21% for 10+Last 4: 10Returns: 1/1 starts
Returned in 1 of his last 1 starts, median 10 points, 6.7% owned.
5.ØdegaardARS · MID · 19.8% owned4.8 Armband
3.4 projected · 22% for 10+Last 4: 11Returns: 1/1 starts
Returned in 1 of his last 1 starts, median 11 points, 19.8% owned.

Wildcard draft for Gameweek 2

A full fifteen built from scratch inside £100.0m, picked for the next 5 gameweeks rather than this one alone. Three players per club and the usual position quotas; doubtful players are included only when their official chance of playing is at least 50%.

Formation

5-3-2

Spend

£97.3m£2.7m left

Best eleven, 5 weeks

212.2 xPts

Armband

Szoboszlai

Objective: for each of Gameweeks 2 to 6,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 164.8.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 66.3 on the same objective (225.6 average for its eleven), so this draft is 98.5 ahead.

4+ a week

3 of 15

Real upside

615%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

212.2 / 295.2

Ceiling starters per week: 6, 6, 6, 6, 7 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 11. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Raya

ARS v AVL (A)

19.4 xPts

2% for 10+

£6.1m · 88%

De Cuyper

BHA v CHE (A)

14.0 xPts

22% for 10+

£4.9m · 79%

Justin

LEE v BRE (H)

12.1 xPts

15% for 10+

£4.5m · 52%

Ajayi

HUL v COV (A)

11.5 xPts

17% for 10+

£4.2m · 61%

Diop

IPS v MUN (A)

9.1 xPts

2% for 10+

£4.0m · 52%

Mendy

HUL v COV (A)

8.3 xPts

16% for 10+

£4.1m · 55%

Szoboszlai

LIV v NFO (H)

20.3 xPts x2

2% for 10+

£7.0m · 82%

Dewsbury-Hall

EVE v BOU (A)

18.1 xPts

21% for 10+

£6.6m · 76%

Gakpo

LIV v NFO (H)

17.8 xPts

22% for 10+

£7.2m · 79%

Haaland

MCI v CRY (A)

28.6 xPts

1% for 10+

£15.6m · 83%

João Pedro

CHE v BHA (H)

21.1 xPts

22% for 10+

£7.7m · 81%

75% chance to play

Bench, in order

Kinsky

TOT v NEW (H)

14.2 xPts

2% for 10+

£4.5m · 78%

Rice

ARS v AVL (A)

19.0 xPts

2% for 10+

£7.4m · 80%

75% chance to play

Hughes

CRY v MCI (H)

7.9 xPts

2% for 10+

£4.4m · 64%

Isak

LIV v NFO (H)

19.6 xPts

1% for 10+

£9.1m · 69%

Armband: Szoboszlai wears it in Gameweek 2; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Head to head: João Pedro faces De Cuyper in GW2 (CHE v BHA), Raya faces João Pedro in GW3 (ARS v CHE), Rice faces João Pedro in GW3 (ARS v CHE). These survived because the cost charged for them inside the objective was still smaller than the points gained.

Projected points, week by week, armband included

Starting eleven All fifteen

Each week the armband goes to the starter with the best chance of a 10+ score, not simply the highest average, because captaincy doubles a range of outcomes.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
2	Szoboszlai 2%	Raya, De Cuyper, Ajayi, Mendy, Justin, Diop, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Dewsbury-Hall, Haaland, João Pedro	39.7	-2.9	35.5
3	Haaland 1%	Raya, De Cuyper, Ajayi, Mendy, Diop, Justin, Rice, Gakpo, Dewsbury-Hall, Haaland, João Pedro	39.8	-6.9	31.7
4	João Pedro 22%	Raya, De Cuyper, Ajayi, Mendy, Justin, Diop, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Dewsbury-Hall, Haaland, João Pedro	38.2	-7.9	29.3
5	Haaland 2%	Raya, Justin, De Cuyper, Ajayi, Diop, Dewsbury-Hall, Szoboszlai, Gakpo, Haaland, Isak, João Pedro	50.6	-2.2	44.9
6	Haaland 1%	Raya, Ajayi, Justin, De Cuyper, Diop, Mendy, Dewsbury-Hall, Gakpo, Haaland, Isak, João Pedro	43.9	-19.6	23.3
Total					164.8

Closest alternative squads

120.6(-44.2)Rice, Haaland, De Cuyper, Ajayi, Diop, Mendy, Justin, Gakpoout,Maguire, B.Fernandes, Saka, Calvert-Lewin, Calafiori, Tarkowski, Guéhi, Ajerin
100.3(-64.5)João Pedro, Isak, De Cuyper, Diop, Justin, Gakpoout,B.Fernandes, Calvert-Lewin, Barry, Calafiori, Egan, Ajerin
98.8(-66.0)Rice, Dewsbury-Hall, Haaland, De Cuyper, Diop, Mendy, Justin, Gakpoout,Shaw, Maguire, Palmer, Semenyo, Saka, Calvert-Lewin, Gabriel, Tarkowskiin

Moves after the wildcard, one a week

GW3AjayitoCalafiori£5.8m · 87% to start · worth 6.8 points over the rest of the window
GW4GakpotoRogers£7.7m · 85% to start · worth 3.0 points over the rest of the window
GW5De CuypertoRúben£5.5m · 53% to start · worth 2.7 points over the rest of the window

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Free hit draft for Gameweek 2

Solved for this gameweek alone, with every pound pushed into the eleven. A free hit lasts one week, so the bench here is only there to make the squad legal.

Formation

5-4-1

Spend

£97.2m£2.8m left

Starting eleven

45.5 xPts

Armband

Palmer

Objective: for this gameweek,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 50.7.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 18.8 on the same objective (45.4 average for its eleven), so this draft is 31.9 ahead.

4+ a week

4 of 15

Real upside

615%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

45.5 / 62.9

Ceiling starters per week: 6 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £2.7m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Raya

ARS v AVL (A)

3.8 xPts

2% for 10+

£6.1m · 88%

Virgil

LIV v NFO (H)

4.0 xPts

3% for 10+

£6.5m · 77%

Calafiori

ARS v AVL (A)

3.6 xPts

3% for 10+

£5.8m · 87%

Lacroix

CHE v BHA (H)

3.6 xPts

3% for 10+

£5.9m · 72%

Gabriel

ARS v AVL (A)

3.4 xPts

2% for 10+

£8.0m · 79%

Guéhi

MCI v CRY (A)

3.2 xPts

22% for 10+

£6.0m · 78%

Palmer

CHE v BHA (H)

4.4 xPts x2

22% for 10+

£9.7m · 79%

75% chance to play

Gakpo

LIV v NFO (H)

4.1 xPts

22% for 10+

£7.2m · 79%

Tavernier

BOU v EVE (H)

3.4 xPts

21% for 10+

£6.1m · 74%

M.Sangaré

BRE v LEE (A)

3.1 xPts

21% for 10+

£5.6m · 77%

João Pedro

CHE v BHA (H)

4.5 xPts

22% for 10+

£7.7m · 81%

75% chance to play

Bench, in order

Verbruggen

BHA v CHE (A)

2.7 xPts

2% for 10+

£4.5m · 78%

Szoboszlai

LIV v NFO (H)

4.3 xPts

2% for 10+

£7.0m · 82%

Barry

EVE v BOU (A)

2.7 xPts

1% for 10+

£5.6m · 66%

Emersonn

IPS v MUN (A)

2.1 xPts

1% for 10+

£5.5m · 51%

Armband: Palmer wears it in Gameweek 2; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
2	Palmer 22%	Raya, Virgil, Calafiori, Lacroix, Gabriel, Guéhi, Palmer, Gakpo, Tavernier, M.Sangaré, João Pedro	45.5	0	50.7
Total					50.7

Closest alternative squads

43.7(-7.0)Virgil, Calafiori, Lacroix, M.Sangaré, Gabriel, Barryout,Haaland, James, Ajayi, Shaw, Mendy, Hughesin
43.2(-7.5)Gakpo, Virgil, Lacroix, M.Sangaré, Gabriel, Barryout,Ødegaard, Haaland, Ajayi, Shaw, Mendy, Hughesin
42.9(-7.8)Tavernier, Palmer, Gabriel, Barryout,Dewsbury-Hall, Haaland, James, Hughesin

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Best GKP picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

RayaARS · GKP · £6.1m · 42.2% ownedAVL (A) · CHE (H) · SUN (A)19.4 xPts
PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 9.1% ownedBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A)17.0 xPts
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedCRY (A) · COV (H) · MUN (A)16.9 xPts
A.BeckerLIV · GKP · £5.5m · 4.0% ownedNFO (H) · IPS (A) · FUL (H)16.1 xPts

Best DEF picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.8m · 50.5% ownedAVL (A) · CHE (H) · SUN (A)19.8 xPts
GabrielARS · DEF · £8.0m · 22.8% ownedAVL (A) · CHE (H) · SUN (A)19.0 xPts
TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.1% ownedBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A)17.8 xPts
VirgilLIV · DEF · £6.5m · 16.2% ownedNFO (H) · IPS (A) · FUL (H)17.8 xPts

Best MID picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

B.FernandesMUN · MID · £11.9m · 38.6% ownedIPS (H) · EVE (A) · MCI (H)28.4 xPts
SakaARS · MID · £9.5m · 13.6% ownedAVL (A) · CHE (H) · SUN (A)23.1 xPts
RogersCHE · MID · £7.7m · 40.4% ownedBHA (H) · ARS (A) · HUL (H)21.9 xPts
SzoboszlaiLIV · MID · £7.0m · 33.0% ownedNFO (H) · IPS (A) · FUL (H)20.3 xPts

Best FWD picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

HaalandMCI · FWD · £15.6m · 73.7% ownedCRY (A) · COV (H) · MUN (A)28.6 xPts
IsakLIV · FWD · £9.1m · 22.4% ownedNFO (H) · IPS (A) · FUL (H)19.6 xPts
HavertzARS · FWD · £7.6m · 8.5% ownedAVL (A) · CHE (H) · SUN (A)16.7 xPts
Calvert-LewinLEE · FWD · £6.0m · 24.9% ownedBRE (H) · BHA (A) · NEW (H)16.5 xPts

Outliers: due a return

These players have created far more than they have scored or assisted. That gap usually closes, and the price often has not caught up yet.

ThiagoBRE · FWD · £7.8m · 9.0% ownedLEE (A) · SUN (H) · BOU (A)+2.3
BarryEVE · FWD · £5.6m · 8.2% ownedBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A)+1.6
E.Le FéeSUN · MID · £5.7m · 3.4% ownedFUL (H) · BRE (A) · ARS (H)+1.4
O'ReillyMCI · DEF · £6.3m · 11.0% ownedCRY (A) · COV (H) · MUN (A)+1.3
SzoboszlaiLIV · MID · £7.0m · 33.0% ownedNFO (H) · IPS (A) · FUL (H)+1.2
SakaARS · MID · £9.5m · 13.6% ownedAVL (A) · CHE (H) · SUN (A)+1.2
MbeumoMUN · MID · £7.9m · 20.7% ownedIPS (H) · EVE (A) · MCI (H)+0.9
Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% ownedBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A)+0.8

Outliers: running hot

Scoring well above their underlying numbers. Not a sell on its own, but be careful paying a premium for a run that the chances do not support.

GroßBHA · MID · £5.8m · 28.1% ownedCHE (A) · LEE (H) · COV (A)-4.4
SchadeBRE · MID · £6.2m · 11.0% ownedLEE (A) · SUN (H) · BOU (A)-3.2
GvardiolMCI · DEF · £5.7m · 26.7% ownedCRY (A) · COV (H) · MUN (A)-3.0
CherkiMCI · MID · £7.8m · 28.3% ownedCRY (A) · COV (H) · MUN (A)-2.7
De CuyperBHA · DEF · £4.9m · 27.4% ownedCHE (A) · LEE (H) · COV (A)-1.8
TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.1% ownedBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A)-1.8

Differentials under 8% owned

Where the rank is won. Strong five-gameweek projections that most of your mini-league does not own.

Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% ownedBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A)18.1 xPts
WirtzLIV · MID · £7.3m · 5.8% ownedNFO (H) · IPS (A) · FUL (H)17.6 xPts
BarnesNEW · MID · £6.1m · 5.5% ownedTOT (A) · BOU (H) · LEE (A)17.0 xPts
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedCRY (A) · COV (H) · MUN (A)16.9 xPts
CunhaMUN · MID · £7.9m · 5.7% ownedIPS (H) · EVE (A) · MCI (H)16.6 xPts
AndersonMCI · MID · £6.3m · 4.0% ownedCRY (A) · COV (H) · MUN (A)16.1 xPts

Best value under £6.0m

Most projected points per million spent, the picks that free up money elsewhere in your squad.

CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.8m · 50.5% ownedAVL (A) · CHE (H) · SUN (A)3.4 /£m
KinskyTOT · GKP · £4.5m · 17.4% ownedNEW (H) · NFO (A) · EVE (H)3.2 /£m
VerbruggenBHA · GKP · £4.5m · 21.6% ownedCHE (A) · LEE (H) · COV (A)3.1 /£m
TraffordLEE · GKP · £5.0m · 5.5% ownedBRE (H) · BHA (A) · NEW (H)3.1 /£m
PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 9.1% ownedBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A)3.1 /£m
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedCRY (A) · COV (H) · MUN (A)3.1 /£m

Defensive contribution engines

Players clearing the defensive contribution threshold most regularly, so the two bonus points land more often than not.

EganHUL · DEF · £4.1m · 7.0% ownedCOV (A) · AVL (H) · CHE (A)2.03x
LacroixCHE · DEF · £5.9m · 6.8% ownedBHA (H) · ARS (A) · HUL (H)1.94x
MuharemovićLEE · DEF · £5.0m · 4.3% ownedBRE (H) · BHA (A) · NEW (H)1.93x
BranthwaiteEVE · DEF · £5.5m · 2.4% ownedBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A)1.80x
TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.1% ownedBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A)1.70x
AjerBRE · DEF · £4.5m · 3.9% ownedLEE (A) · SUN (H) · BOU (A)1.67x

Fixture swings over the next five

Kindest runs

NewcastleTOT (A) · BOU (H) · LEE (A) · HUL (H) · COV (A)2.60
Coventry CityHUL (H) · MCI (A) · BHA (H) · NFO (A) · NEW (H)2.80
EvertonBOU (A) · MUN (H) · TOT (A) · IPS (H) · HUL (A)2.80
LiverpoolNFO (H) · IPS (A) · FUL (H) · BOU (A) · MCI (H)2.80
Aston VillaARS (H) · HUL (A) · NFO (H) · TOT (A) · BRE (H)3.00

Toughest runs

BournemouthEVE (H) · NEW (A) · BRE (H) · LIV (H) · CHE (A)3.40
ArsenalAVL (A) · CHE (H) · SUN (A) · BHA (A) · LEE (H)3.20
BrentfordLEE (A) · SUN (H) · BOU (A) · CHE (H) · AVL (A)3.20
FulhamSUN (A) · CRY (H) · LIV (A) · MUN (H) · IPS (A)3.20
Ipswich TownMUN (A) · LIV (H) · CRY (A) · EVE (A) · FUL (H)3.20

Lower is easier. Scores are the official fixture difficulty ratings averaged over the next five games.

What the market is doing this week

Most bought

Groß BHA+707k
Schade BRE+325k
Kostoulas BHA+256k
De Cuyper BHA+239k
Hall NEW+203k

Most sold

João Pedro CHE-302k
Szoboszlai LIV-157k
Elanga NEW-153k
B.Fernandes MUN-143k
M.Sangaré BRE-120k

Net transfers this gameweek. Heavy buying usually means a price rise is close. See price changes.

Availability watch

Widely owned players carrying an injury, suspension or rotation flag. These are already discounted in the projections and never suggested as a buy.

João PedroCHE · 65.5% owned · 75% chance to playKnee injury - 75% chance of playing
PalmerCHE · 26.0% owned · 75% chance to playMuscular injury - 75% chance of playing
SemenyoMCI · 15.5% owned · 75% chance to playAnkle injury - 75% chance of playing
RiceARS · 11.8% owned · 75% chance to playUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
van EwijkCOV · 8.8% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Pedro PorroTOT · 7.7% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
JamesCHE · 5.9% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
WhiteARS · 5.0% owned · 75% chance to playGroin injury - 75% chance of playing

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