Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 3?

Haaland (MCI) leads Armband's Gameweek 3 projections with 5.0 expected points, ahead of B.Fernandes on 5.0. Projections come from team attack and defence ratings built on actual results, expected goals and assists, clean-sheet odds and start probability.

Who should I transfer in for FPL Gameweek 3?

Raya (ARS, £6.1m) has the highest projected return over the next five gameweeks at 18.9 expected points. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are excluded from transfer-in suggestions.

Which FPL players are due a return in Gameweek 3?

Thiago (BRE), Barry (EVE), E.Le Fée (SUN) are the biggest underperformers against their expected goals and assists, which historically corrects.

Armband

One move. Every deadline.

Gameweek 3 briefing

FPL Gameweek 3: the transfer, the armband and the outliers

Haaland (MCI) leads the Gameweek 3 projections on 5.0 expected points, with B.Fernandes on 5.0 as the safer runner-up. Below: the strongest buys in each position, the players whose underlying numbers say a return is overdue, the fixture runs turning kind, and where the market is heading. Deadline: Friday 4 September at 17:30 UTC.

Captain picks for Gameweek 3

Ranked highest first on the Armband score, the one number that also picks the captain in the drafts below: projected points blended with recent scoring (capped at 1.5 times the projection), rewarded for a reliable floor and for the chance of a 10+ score, and marked down for wild swings or for running hot.

1.B.FernandesMUN · MID · 38.6% owned8.1 Armband
5.0 projected · 42% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 23Returns: 1/2 starts · penalties
Highest floor of your realistic options. Returned in 1 of his last 2 starts, median 13 points, and he takes the penalties.
2.HaalandMCI · FWD · 73.7% owned7.2 Armband
5.0 projected · 26% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 13Returns: 1/2 starts · penalties
On penalties, returned in 1 of his last 2 starts, median 8 points.
3.SakaARS · MID · 13.6% owned6.9 Armband
4.3 projected · 27% for 10+Last 4: 9 · 11Returns: 2/2 starts · penalties
On penalties, returned in 2 of his last 2 starts, median 10 points.
4.MbeumoMUN · MID · 20.6% owned5.8 Armband
3.5 projected · 39% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 11Returns: 1/2 starts
Returned in 1 of his last 2 starts, median 7 points, 20.6% owned.
5.ØdegaardARS · MID · 19.8% owned5.6 Armband
4.1 projected · 21% for 10+Last 4: 11 · 3Returns: 1/2 starts
Returned in 1 of his last 2 starts, median 7 points, 19.8% owned.

Wildcard draft for Gameweek 3

A full fifteen built from scratch inside £100.0m, picked for the next 5 gameweeks rather than this one alone. Three players per club and the usual position quotas; doubtful players are included only when their official chance of playing is at least 50%.

Formation

4-4-2

Spend

£99.3m£0.7m left

Best eleven, 5 weeks

243.4 xPts

Armband

B.Fernandes

Objective: for each of Gameweeks 3 to 7,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 269.5.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 227.0 on the same objective (243.7 average for its eleven), so this draft is 42.5 ahead.

4+ a week

4 of 15

Real upside

615%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

243.4 / 344.9

Ceiling starters per week: 6, 6, 7, 8, 8 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Raya

ARS v CHE (H)

19.0 xPts

0% for 10+

£6.1m · 87%

Calafiori

ARS v CHE (H)

19.9 xPts

25% for 10+

£5.8m · 85%

N.Williams

NFO v TOT (H)

16.0 xPts

3% for 10+

£5.0m · 73%

Hall

NEW v BOU (H)

15.2 xPts

23% for 10+

£5.3m · 77%

Ajayi

HUL v AVL (H)

12.7 xPts

16% for 10+

£4.2m · 60%

B.Fernandes

MUN v EVE (A)

29.4 xPts x2

45% for 10+

£11.9m · 87%

Saka

ARS v CHE (H)

24.1 xPts

29% for 10+

£9.5m · 79%

Szoboszlai

LIV v IPS (A)

20.4 xPts

14% for 10+

£7.0m · 83%

Mbeumo

MUN v EVE (A)

18.3 xPts

40% for 10+

£7.9m · 79%

Isak

LIV v IPS (A)

20.2 xPts

15% for 10+

£9.1m · 70%

Thiago

BRE v SUN (H)

15.1 xPts

12% for 10+

£7.8m · 63%

Bench, in order

Petrović

BOU v NEW (A)

13.3 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.5m · 55%

Bogle

LEE v BHA (A)

13.9 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.6m · 72%

Hughes

CRY v FUL (A)

6.2 xPts

2% for 10+

£4.4m · 66%

Wissa

NEW v BOU (H)

17.0 xPts

9% for 10+

£6.2m · 69%

Armband: B.Fernandes wears it in Gameweek 3; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Head to head: Calafiori faces N.Williams in GW7 (ARS v NFO), N.Williams faces Saka in GW7 (NFO v ARS). These survived because the cost charged for them inside the objective was still smaller than the points gained.

Projected points, week by week, armband included

Starting eleven All fifteen

Each week the armband goes to the starter with the best chance of a 10+ score, not simply the highest average, because captaincy doubles a range of outcomes.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
3	B.Fernandes 42%	Raya, Calafiori, Hall, N.Williams, Ajayi, B.Fernandes, Saka, Szoboszlai, Mbeumo, Isak, Thiago	44.6	0	50.4
4	B.Fernandes 42%	Raya, Calafiori, Hall, N.Williams, Ajayi, B.Fernandes, Saka, Szoboszlai, Mbeumo, Isak, Thiago	42.5	0	48.2
5	B.Fernandes 50%	Raya, Bogle, N.Williams, Calafiori, Hall, B.Fernandes, Saka, Szoboszlai, Mbeumo, Isak, Wissa	57.3	0	63.8
6	B.Fernandes 46%	Raya, Calafiori, Ajayi, N.Williams, Hall, B.Fernandes, Saka, Szoboszlai, Mbeumo, Isak, Thiago	48.9	0	55.1
7	B.Fernandes 46%	Petrović, Calafiori, N.Williams, Ajayi, Hall, B.Fernandes, Saka, Szoboszlai, Mbeumo, Isak, Wissa	50.1	-4.3	52.1
Total					269.5

Closest alternative squads

252.7(-16.8)Isak, Wissa, Calafiori, Hall, Saka, Thiagoout,Egan, Davis, Gibbs-White, Haaland, João Pedro, Akpomin
250.6(-18.9)Raya, Isak, Wissa, Calafiori, N.Williams, Bogle, Mbeumo, Szoboszlai, Thiago, Petrovićout,Donnarumma, Ajer, Gibbs-White, Groß, Haaland, João Pedro, Kusi-Asare, Egan, Mitchell, Kinskyin
243.2(-26.3)Isak, Calafiori, Hall, N.Williams, Szoboszlai, Thiagoout,Haaland, Kusi-Asare, Davis, Egan, Maguire, Ødegaardin

Moves after the wildcard, one a week

GW4ThiagotoJoão Pedro£7.7m · 82% to start · worth 5.2 points over the rest of the window
GW5MbeumotoSemenyo£8.4m · 79% to start · worth 3.3 points over the rest of the window
GW6HalltoRúben£5.5m · 52% to start · worth 1.3 points over the rest of the window

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Free hit draft for Gameweek 3

Solved for this gameweek alone, with every pound pushed into the eleven. A free hit lasts one week, so the bench here is only there to make the squad legal.

Formation

4-4-2

Spend

£100.0m£0.0m left

Starting eleven

47.6 xPts

Armband

B.Fernandes

Objective: for this gameweek,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 53.6.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 29.4 on the same objective (44.6 average for its eleven), so this draft is 24.2 ahead.

4+ a week

5 of 15

Real upside

815%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

47.6 / 67.5

Ceiling starters per week: 8 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Raya

ARS v CHE (H)

4.7 xPts

0% for 10+

£6.1m · 87%

Calafiori

ARS v CHE (H)

4.7 xPts

27% for 10+

£5.8m · 85%

Guéhi

MCI v COV (H)

3.2 xPts

27% for 10+

£6.0m · 78%

De Cuyper

BHA v LEE (H)

3.1 xPts

35% for 10+

£4.9m · 77%

Shaw

MUN v EVE (A)

2.3 xPts

3% for 10+

£4.3m · 67%

B.Fernandes

MUN v EVE (A)

5.0 xPts x2

42% for 10+

£11.9m · 87%

Ødegaard

ARS v CHE (H)

4.1 xPts

21% for 10+

£6.8m · 79%

Groß

BHA v LEE (H)

3.7 xPts

20% for 10+

£5.8m · 79%

Schade

BRE v SUN (H)

3.5 xPts

23% for 10+

£6.2m · 76%

Haaland

MCI v COV (H)

5.0 xPts

26% for 10+

£15.6m · 83%

Isak

LIV v IPS (A)

3.3 xPts

12% for 10+

£9.1m · 70%

Bench, in order

Verbruggen

BHA v LEE (H)

2.9 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.5m · 77%

Egan

HUL v AVL (H)

1.9 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.1m · 54%

Hughes

CRY v FUL (A)

2.3 xPts

4% for 10+

£4.4m · 66%

Kusi-Asare

FUL v CRY (H)

1.6 xPts

2% for 10+

£4.5m · 43%

Armband: B.Fernandes wears it in Gameweek 3; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
3	B.Fernandes 42%	Raya, Calafiori, Guéhi, De Cuyper, Shaw, B.Fernandes, Ødegaard, Groß, Schade, Haaland, Isak	47.6	0	53.6
Total					53.6

Closest alternative squads

51.3(-2.3)Schade, Haaland, Calafiori, Shaw, Hughes, Kusi-Asareout,Virgil, Saka, Szoboszlai, O'Reilly, Barry, Brobbeyin
49.7(-3.9)Schade, Calafiori, Guéhi, Shawout,Saka, Ajayi, Mendy, Mitchellin
47.7(-5.9)Schade, Ødegaard, Calafiori, Guéhi, De Cuyperout,Saka, Cherki, Ajayi, Mendy, Diopin

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Best GKP picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

RayaARS · GKP · £6.1m · 42.2% ownedCHE (H) · SUN (A) · BHA (A)18.9 xPts
PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 9.1% ownedMUN (H) · TOT (A) · IPS (H)17.5 xPts
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedCOV (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H)17.5 xPts
A.BeckerLIV · GKP · £5.5m · 4.0% ownedIPS (A) · FUL (H) · BOU (A)16.3 xPts

Best DEF picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.8m · 50.5% ownedCHE (H) · SUN (A) · BHA (A)19.9 xPts
GabrielARS · DEF · £8.0m · 22.8% ownedCHE (H) · SUN (A) · BHA (A)19.6 xPts
TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.1% ownedMUN (H) · TOT (A) · IPS (H)18.6 xPts
GuéhiMCI · DEF · £6.0m · 18.3% ownedCOV (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H)17.9 xPts

Best MID picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

B.FernandesMUN · MID · £11.9m · 38.6% ownedEVE (A) · MCI (H) · FUL (A)29.4 xPts
SakaARS · MID · £9.5m · 13.6% ownedCHE (H) · SUN (A) · BHA (A)24.1 xPts
RogersCHE · MID · £7.7m · 40.4% ownedARS (A) · HUL (H) · BRE (A)21.8 xPts
SzoboszlaiLIV · MID · £7.0m · 33.0% ownedIPS (A) · FUL (H) · BOU (A)20.4 xPts

Best FWD picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

HaalandMCI · FWD · £15.6m · 73.7% ownedCOV (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H)30.0 xPts
IsakLIV · FWD · £9.1m · 22.4% ownedIPS (A) · FUL (H) · BOU (A)20.2 xPts
WissaNEW · FWD · £6.2m · 18.7% ownedBOU (H) · LEE (A) · HUL (H)17.0 xPts
Calvert-LewinLEE · FWD · £6.0m · 24.9% ownedBHA (A) · NEW (H) · CRY (H)16.8 xPts

Outliers: due a return

These players have created far more than they have scored or assisted. That gap usually closes, and the price often has not caught up yet.

ThiagoBRE · FWD · £7.8m · 9.0% ownedSUN (H) · BOU (A) · CHE (H)+2.3
BarryEVE · FWD · £5.6m · 8.2% ownedMUN (H) · TOT (A) · IPS (H)+1.6
E.Le FéeSUN · MID · £5.7m · 3.4% ownedBRE (A) · ARS (H) · MCI (A)+1.4
O'ReillyMCI · DEF · £6.3m · 11.0% ownedCOV (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H)+1.3
SzoboszlaiLIV · MID · £7.0m · 33.0% ownedIPS (A) · FUL (H) · BOU (A)+1.2
SakaARS · MID · £9.5m · 13.6% ownedCHE (H) · SUN (A) · BHA (A)+1.2
MbeumoMUN · MID · £7.9m · 20.6% ownedEVE (A) · MCI (H) · FUL (A)+0.9
Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% ownedMUN (H) · TOT (A) · IPS (H)+0.8

Outliers: running hot

Scoring well above their underlying numbers. Not a sell on its own, but be careful paying a premium for a run that the chances do not support.

GroßBHA · MID · £5.8m · 28.2% ownedLEE (H) · COV (A) · ARS (H)-4.4
SchadeBRE · MID · £6.2m · 11.1% ownedSUN (H) · BOU (A) · CHE (H)-3.2
GvardiolMCI · DEF · £5.7m · 26.7% ownedCOV (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H)-3.0
CherkiMCI · MID · £7.8m · 28.3% ownedCOV (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H)-2.7
De CuyperBHA · DEF · £4.9m · 27.5% ownedLEE (H) · COV (A) · ARS (H)-1.8
TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.1% ownedMUN (H) · TOT (A) · IPS (H)-1.8

Differentials under 8% owned

Where the rank is won. Strong five-gameweek projections that most of your mini-league does not own.

Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% ownedMUN (H) · TOT (A) · IPS (H)19.0 xPts
BarnesNEW · MID · £6.1m · 5.5% ownedBOU (H) · LEE (A) · HUL (H)17.7 xPts
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.6% ownedCOV (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H)17.5 xPts
WirtzLIV · MID · £7.3m · 5.8% ownedIPS (A) · FUL (H) · BOU (A)17.4 xPts
AndersonMCI · MID · £6.3m · 4.0% ownedCOV (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H)17.1 xPts
StachLEE · MID · £6.0m · 2.5% ownedBHA (A) · NEW (H) · CRY (H)16.5 xPts

Best value under £6.0m

Most projected points per million spent, the picks that free up money elsewhere in your squad.

CalafioriARS · DEF · £5.8m · 50.5% ownedCHE (H) · SUN (A) · BHA (A)3.4 /£m
KinskyTOT · GKP · £4.5m · 17.4% ownedNFO (A) · EVE (H) · AVL (H)3.3 /£m
TraffordLEE · GKP · £5.0m · 5.5% ownedBHA (A) · NEW (H) · CRY (H)3.2 /£m
N.WilliamsNFO · DEF · £5.0m · 8.8% ownedTOT (H) · AVL (A) · COV (H)3.2 /£m
VerbruggenBHA · GKP · £4.5m · 21.6% ownedLEE (H) · COV (A) · ARS (H)3.2 /£m
PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 9.1% ownedMUN (H) · TOT (A) · IPS (H)3.2 /£m

Defensive contribution engines

Players clearing the defensive contribution threshold most regularly, so the two bonus points land more often than not.

LacroixCHE · DEF · £5.9m · 6.8% ownedARS (A) · HUL (H) · BRE (A)1.94x
MuharemovićLEE · DEF · £5.0m · 4.3% ownedBHA (A) · NEW (H) · CRY (H)1.93x
TarkowskiEVE · DEF · £6.1m · 16.1% ownedMUN (H) · TOT (A) · IPS (H)1.70x
AjerBRE · DEF · £4.5m · 3.9% ownedSUN (H) · BOU (A) · CHE (H)1.67x
VirgilLIV · DEF · £6.5m · 16.2% ownedIPS (A) · FUL (H) · BOU (A)1.60x
HallNEW · DEF · £5.3m · 17.1% ownedBOU (H) · LEE (A) · HUL (H)1.54x

Fixture swings over the next five

Kindest runs

NewcastleBOU (H) · LEE (A) · HUL (H) · COV (A) · AVL (H)2.60
Aston VillaHUL (A) · NFO (H) · TOT (A) · BRE (H) · NEW (A)2.80
BrightonLEE (H) · COV (A) · ARS (H) · SUN (A) · CRY (H)2.80
Crystal PalaceFUL (A) · IPS (H) · LEE (A) · NFO (H) · BHA (A)2.80
LiverpoolIPS (A) · FUL (H) · BOU (A) · MCI (H) · BRE (A)2.80

Toughest runs

BrentfordSUN (H) · BOU (A) · CHE (H) · AVL (A) · LIV (H)3.40
Ipswich TownLIV (H) · CRY (A) · EVE (A) · FUL (H) · MCI (A)3.40
LeedsBHA (A) · NEW (H) · CRY (H) · ARS (A) · MUN (H)3.40
SunderlandBRE (A) · ARS (H) · MCI (A) · BHA (H) · BOU (A)3.40
BournemouthNEW (A) · BRE (H) · LIV (H) · CHE (A) · SUN (H)3.20

Lower is easier. Scores are the official fixture difficulty ratings averaged over the next five games.

What the market is doing this week

Most bought

Groß BHA+715k
Schade BRE+330k
Kostoulas BHA+260k
De Cuyper BHA+250k
Hall NEW+206k

Most sold

João Pedro CHE-306k
Szoboszlai LIV-159k
Elanga NEW-155k
B.Fernandes MUN-144k
M.Sangaré BRE-122k

Net transfers this gameweek. Heavy buying usually means a price rise is close. See price changes.

Availability watch

Widely owned players carrying an injury, suspension or rotation flag. These are already discounted in the projections and never suggested as a buy.

João PedroCHE · 65.5% owned · 75% chance to playKnee injury - 75% chance of playing
PalmerCHE · 25.9% owned · 75% chance to playMuscular injury - 75% chance of playing
SemenyoMCI · 15.5% owned · 75% chance to playAnkle injury - 75% chance of playing
RiceARS · 11.8% owned · 75% chance to playUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
van EwijkCOV · 8.8% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
HavertzARS · 8.5% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Pedro PorroTOT · 7.7% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
BrobbeySUN · 7.1% owned · 75% chance to playHamstring injury - 75% chance of playing

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