Who should I captain in FPL Gameweek 9?

B.Fernandes (MUN) leads Armband's Gameweek 9 projections with 6.1 expected points, ahead of Haaland on 6.0. Projections come from team attack and defence ratings built on actual results, expected goals and assists, clean-sheet odds and start probability.

Who should I transfer in for FPL Gameweek 9?

Raya (ARS, £6.2m) has the highest projected return over the next five gameweeks at 7.3 expected points. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are excluded from transfer-in suggestions.

Which FPL players are due a return in Gameweek 9?

Gonzalo (FUL), Iwobi (FUL), Barry (EVE) are the biggest underperformers against their expected goals and assists, which historically corrects.

Armband

One move. Every deadline.

Gameweek 9 briefing

FPL Gameweek 9: the transfer, the armband and the outliers

B.Fernandes (MUN) leads the Gameweek 9 projections on 6.1 expected points, with Haaland on 6.0 as the safer runner-up. Below: the strongest buys in each position, the players whose underlying numbers say a return is overdue, the fixture runs turning kind, and where the market is heading. Deadline: Saturday 31 October at 11:00 UTC.

Captain picks for Gameweek 9

Ranked highest first on the Armband score, the one number that also picks the captain in the drafts below: projected points blended with recent scoring (capped at 1.5 times the projection), rewarded for a reliable floor and for the chance of a 10+ score, and marked down for wild swings or for running hot.

1.HaalandMCI · FWD · 78.4% owned8.1 Armband
6.0 projected · 31% for 10+Last 4: 6 · 6 · 13 · 8Returns: 5/5 starts · penalties
Highest floor of your realistic options. Returned in 5 of his last 5 starts, median 7 points, and he takes the penalties.
2.TavernierBOU · MID · 21.0% owned5.7 Armband
3.3 projected · 32% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 1 · 10 · 10Returns: 3/5 starts
Returned in 3 of his last 5 starts, median 6 points, 21.0% owned.
3.GroßBHA · MID · 46.0% owned5.5 Armband
3.5 projected · 35% for 10+Last 4: 14 · 6 · 5 · 0Returns: 3/5 starts · penalties
On penalties, returned in 3 of his last 5 starts, median 6 points.
Also listed as running hot: the model takes 1.0 off his armband score and caps his form at 1.5 times his projection.
4.IsakLIV · FWD · 17.7% owned5.4 Armband
4.4 projected · 14% for 10+Last 4: 8 · 0 · 9 · 9Returns: 3/4 starts
Returned in 3 of his last 4 starts, median 9 points, 17.7% owned.
5.MbeumoMUN · MID · 21.4% owned5.0 Armband
3.9 projected · 16% for 10+Last 4: 2 · 8 · 8 · 2Returns: 2/5 starts
Returned in 2 of his last 5 starts, median 5 points, 21.4% owned.

Wildcard draft for Gameweek 9

A full fifteen built from scratch inside £100.0m, picked for the next 5 gameweeks rather than this one alone. Three players per club and the usual position quotas; doubtful players are included only when their official chance of playing is at least 50%.

Formation

3-5-2

Spend

£100.0m£0.0m left

Best eleven, 5 weeks

100.0 xPts

Armband

Haaland

Objective: for each of Gameweeks 9 to 13,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 5.0.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores -17.7 on the same objective (91.3 average for its eleven), so this draft is 22.7 ahead.

4+ a week

0 of 15

Real upside

015%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

100.0 / 173.5

Ceiling starters per week: 6, 6, 0, 0, 0 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 15. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Pickford

EVE v NEW (A)

7.3 xPts

0% for 10+

£5.5m · 94%

Guéhi

MCI v BHA (H)

7.3 xPts

2% for 10+

£6.0m · 92%

Ajayi

HUL v IPS (H)

7.0 xPts

1% for 10+

£4.2m · 90%

Giles

HUL v IPS (H)

6.4 xPts

1% for 10+

£4.0m · 92%

B.Fernandes

MUN v CHE (A)

12.3 xPts

7% for 10+

£11.7m · 96%

Mbeumo

MUN v CHE (A)

8.1 xPts

6% for 10+

£7.9m · 94%

Dewsbury-Hall

EVE v NEW (A)

8.0 xPts

8% for 10+

£6.6m · 91%

E.Le Fée

SUN v COV (A)

7.4 xPts

5% for 10+

£5.7m · 87%

Cunha

MUN v CHE (A)

6.8 xPts

13% for 10+

£7.8m · 69%

Haaland

MCI v BHA (H)

11.2 xPts x2

13% for 10+

£15.8m · 98%

Evanilson

BOU v LEE (H)

6.9 xPts

8% for 10+

£6.3m · 84%

Bench, in order

Kinsky

TOT v CRY (H)

6.4 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.4m · 94%

Mykolenko

EVE v NEW (A)

6.1 xPts

6% for 10+

£4.6m · 91%

O'Shea

IPS v HUL (A)

5.5 xPts

5% for 10+

£4.0m · 87%

Emersonn

IPS v HUL (A)

5.3 xPts

6% for 10+

£5.5m · 63%

Armband: Haaland wears it in Gameweek 9; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Projected points, week by week, armband included

Starting eleven All fifteen

Each week the armband goes to the starter with the best chance of a 10+ score, not simply the highest average, because captaincy doubles a range of outcomes.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
9	Haaland 31%	Pickford, Guéhi, Ajayi, Giles, B.Fernandes, Mbeumo, Dewsbury-Hall, E.Le Fée, Cunha, Haaland, Evanilson	49.6	0	54.6
10	Haaland 31%	Pickford, Ajayi, Guéhi, Giles, B.Fernandes, Mbeumo, Dewsbury-Hall, E.Le Fée, Cunha, Haaland, Evanilson	50.4	0	55.4
11	Dewsbury-Hall 0%	Pickford, Guéhi, Ajayi, Giles, O'Shea, Mykolenko, Dewsbury-Hall, Cunha, Haaland, Emersonn, Evanilson	0.0	0	-35.0
12	Dewsbury-Hall 0%	Pickford, Guéhi, Ajayi, Giles, O'Shea, Mykolenko, Dewsbury-Hall, Cunha, Haaland, Emersonn, Evanilson	0.0	0	-35.0
13	Dewsbury-Hall 0%	Pickford, Guéhi, Ajayi, Giles, O'Shea, Mykolenko, Dewsbury-Hall, Cunha, Haaland, Emersonn, Evanilson	0.0	0	-35.0
Total					5.0

Closest alternative squads

3.6(-1.4)E.Le Fée, Emersonn, Evanilson, Guéhi, Mykolenkoout,Isak, Brobbey, Diop, Van Hecke, Yalcouyéin
2.6(-2.4)Dewsbury-Hall, Emersonn, Evanilson, Guéhi, Ajayi, Giles, Cunha, Kinskyout,Branthwaite, Davis, Slater, Donnarumma, Isak, Enciso, Calvert-Lewin, Justinin
0.4(-4.6)E.Le Fée, B.Fernandes, Emersonn, Evanilson, Giles, Mykolenkoout,Gakpo, Isak, Brobbey, Hill, Branthwaite, Yalcouyéin

Moves after the wildcard, one a week

GW10MbeumotoGibbs-White£7.9m · 96% to start · worth 0.5 points over the rest of the window

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Free hit draft for Gameweek 9

Solved for this gameweek alone, with every pound pushed into the eleven. A free hit lasts one week, so the bench here is only there to make the squad legal.

Formation

3-4-3

Spend

£99.8m£0.2m left

Starting eleven

51.0 xPts

Armband

Haaland

Objective: for this gameweek,70% of the eleven's average (captain counted again) plus 30% of its ceiling, minus a cost for our own players facing each other (heavy for a keeper or defender against an attacker, light for two attackers). Rules inside the objective: at least 6 outfield starters with a 15%+ chance of 10+ every week, and no midfielder or forward under 8% starts unless nothing legal fits the budget. The bench counts for nothing. Score: 56.0.

Benchmark: the most-owned legal squad scores 29.8 on the same objective (43.9 average for its eleven), so this draft is 26.2 ahead.

4+ a week

3 of 15

Real upside

615%+ for 10+

Floor only

Eleven: mean / ceiling

51.0 / 67.8

Ceiling starters per week: 6 (need 6). Floor attacker starts: 0. Bench money above the cheapest legal options: £0.0m.

Ceiling is roughly a one in ten good outcome for the eleven. A squad full of floor players and few upside picks will show a small gap between the two.

Donnarumma

MCI v BHA (H)

3.6 xPts

0% for 10+

£5.5m · 95%

Calafiori

ARS v LIV (A)

3.7 xPts

10% for 10+

£5.9m · 87%

75% chance to play

Rúben

MCI v BHA (H)

3.7 xPts

5% for 10+

£5.5m · 93%

Ajayi

HUL v IPS (H)

3.4 xPts

2% for 10+

£4.2m · 90%

B.Fernandes

MUN v CHE (A)

6.1 xPts

17% for 10+

£11.7m · 96%

Gibbs-White

NFO v BRE (A)

4.2 xPts

18% for 10+

£7.9m · 96%

Mbeumo

MUN v CHE (A)

3.9 xPts

16% for 10+

£7.9m · 94%

Tavernier

BOU v LEE (H)

3.3 xPts

32% for 10+

£6.4m · 77%

Haaland

MCI v BHA (H)

6.0 xPts x2

31% for 10+

£15.8m · 98%

Evanilson

BOU v LEE (H)

3.6 xPts

20% for 10+

£6.3m · 84%

Wissa

NEW v EVE (H)

3.5 xPts

10% for 10+

£6.0m · 87%

Bench, in order

Kinsky

TOT v CRY (H)

3.2 xPts

0% for 10+

£4.4m · 94%

van Ewijk

COV v SUN (H)

2.4 xPts

2% for 10+

£3.9m · 79%

Diop

IPS v HUL (A)

2.3 xPts

1% for 10+

£3.9m · 89%

Slater

HUL v IPS (H)

3.6 xPts

3% for 10+

£4.5m · 93%

Armband: Haaland wears it in Gameweek 9; each week's captain is doubled in the totals on this page.

Workings, week by week

GW	Captain (10+ chance)	Eleven	XI + C	Clash	Objective
9	Haaland 31%	Donnarumma, Calafiori, Rúben, Ajayi, B.Fernandes, Gibbs-White, Mbeumo, Tavernier, Haaland, Evanilson, Wissa	51.0	0	56.0
Total					56.0

Closest alternative squads

54.3(-1.7)Evanilson, Calafiori, Ajayi, Rúben, Tavernier, Wissaout,Dewsbury-Hall, Isak, Davis, Van Hecke, O'Shea, Barryin
53.9(-2.1)Calafiori, Ajayi, Rúben, Gibbs-White, Tavernier, Wissa, Diopout,Virgil, Davis, Van Hecke, Ajer, Gakpo, Dewsbury-Hall, McBurniein
53.9(-2.1)Mbeumo, Evanilson, Calafiori, Ajayi, Rúben, Gibbs-White, Wissaout,Brobbey, Dewsbury-Hall, E.Le Fée, Isak, Virgil, Van Hecke, Truffertin

A draft, not advice on your own squad. Projected points rank players, they are not exact forecasts, and they come from the same model as every other number on the site.

Best GKP picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

RayaARS · GKP · £6.2m · 45.7% ownedLIV (A) · HUL (H) · NEW (A)7.3 xPts
PickfordEVE · GKP · £5.5m · 8.5% ownedNEW (A) · COV (H) · BRE (A)7.3 xPts
DonnarummaMCI · GKP · £5.5m · 7.5% ownedBHA (H) · NFO (A) · FUL (H)6.8 xPts
TraffordLEE · GKP · £5.0m · 6.2% ownedBOU (A) · TOT (H) · CHE (A)6.8 xPts

Best DEF picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

GabrielARS · DEF · £7.9m · 23.2% ownedLIV (A) · HUL (H) · NEW (A)8.4 xPts
GuéhiMCI · DEF · £6.0m · 16.9% ownedBHA (H) · NFO (A) · FUL (H)7.3 xPts
VirgilLIV · DEF · £6.4m · 15.1% ownedARS (H) · CRY (A) · MUN (H)7.2 xPts
BranthwaiteEVE · DEF · £5.5m · 2.4% ownedNEW (A) · COV (H) · BRE (A)7.1 xPts

Best MID picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

B.FernandesMUN · MID · £11.7m · 23.8% ownedCHE (A) · AVL (H) · LIV (A)12.3 xPts
Gibbs-WhiteNFO · MID · £7.9m · 11.7% ownedBRE (A) · MCI (H) · BOU (A)9.0 xPts
RogersCHE · MID · £8.0m · 50.3% ownedMUN (H) · SUN (A) · LEE (H)8.8 xPts
MbeumoMUN · MID · £7.9m · 21.4% ownedCHE (A) · AVL (H) · LIV (A)8.1 xPts

Best FWD picks

Highest projected return over the next five gameweeks. Injured, suspended and doubtful players are left out.

HaalandMCI · FWD · £15.8m · 78.4% ownedBHA (H) · NFO (A) · FUL (H)11.2 xPts
IsakLIV · FWD · £9.1m · 17.7% ownedARS (H) · CRY (A) · MUN (H)8.6 xPts
HavertzARS · FWD · £7.4m · 5.6% ownedLIV (A) · HUL (H) · NEW (A)7.8 xPts
McBurnieHUL · FWD · £5.5m · 1.6% ownedIPS (H) · ARS (A) · BHA (H)6.9 xPts

Outliers: due a return

These players have created far more than they have scored or assisted. That gap usually closes, and the price often has not caught up yet.

GonzaloFUL · FWD · £6.0m · 5.4% ownedAVL (A) · NEW (H) · MCI (A)+3.4
IwobiFUL · MID · £5.4m · 1.4% ownedAVL (A) · NEW (H) · MCI (A)+2.3
BarryEVE · FWD · £5.6m · 7.3% ownedNEW (A) · COV (H) · BRE (A)+2.3
ØdegaardARS · MID · £6.7m · 17.3% ownedLIV (A) · HUL (H) · NEW (A)+2.2
RayanBOU · MID · £6.3m · 2.0% ownedLEE (H) · IPS (A) · NFO (H)+2.0
DelapNFO · FWD · £5.5m · 1.7% ownedBRE (A) · MCI (H) · BOU (A)+2.0
E.Le FéeSUN · MID · £5.7m · 2.8% ownedCOV (A) · CHE (H) · AVL (A)+2.0
BobbFUL · MID · £5.5m · 0.5% ownedAVL (A) · NEW (H) · MCI (A)+1.9

Outliers: running hot

Scoring well above their underlying numbers. Not a sell on its own, but be careful paying a premium for a run that the chances do not support.

GroßBHA · MID · £6.2m · 46.0% ownedMCI (A) · BRE (H) · HUL (A)-5.3
KostoulasBHA · FWD · £5.8m · 10.2% ownedMCI (A) · BRE (H) · HUL (A)-4.5
PalmerCHE · MID · £9.8m · 27.3% ownedMUN (H) · SUN (A) · LEE (H)-3.4
GvardiolMCI · DEF · £5.7m · 26.7% ownedBHA (H) · NFO (A) · FUL (H)-3.3
BelloumiHUL · MID · £5.2m · 9.9% ownedIPS (H) · ARS (A) · BHA (H)-2.9
EvanilsonBOU · FWD · £6.3m · 10.3% ownedLEE (H) · IPS (A) · NFO (H)-2.9

Differentials under 8% owned

Where the rank is won. Strong five-gameweek projections that most of your mini-league does not own.

Dewsbury-HallEVE · MID · £6.6m · 6.0% ownedNEW (A) · COV (H) · BRE (A)8.0 xPts
HavertzARS · FWD · £7.4m · 5.6% ownedLIV (A) · HUL (H) · NEW (A)7.8 xPts
E.Le FéeSUN · MID · £5.7m · 2.8% ownedCOV (A) · CHE (H) · AVL (A)7.3 xPts
XhakaSUN · MID · £5.4m · 3.0% ownedCOV (A) · CHE (H) · AVL (A)7.3 xPts
WirtzLIV · MID · £7.2m · 5.0% ownedARS (H) · CRY (A) · MUN (H)7.1 xPts
BranthwaiteEVE · DEF · £5.5m · 2.4% ownedNEW (A) · COV (H) · BRE (A)7.1 xPts

Best value under £6.0m

Most projected points per million spent, the picks that free up money elsewhere in your squad.

AjayiHUL · DEF · £4.2m · 12.9% ownedIPS (H) · ARS (A) · BHA (H)1.7 /£m
GilesHUL · DEF · £4.0m · 2.8% ownedIPS (H) · ARS (A) · BHA (H)1.6 /£m
DavisIPS · DEF · £4.0m · 7.2% ownedHUL (A) · BOU (H) · TOT (A)1.6 /£m
SlaterHUL · MID · £4.5m · 4.6% ownedIPS (H) · ARS (A) · BHA (H)1.5 /£m
EganHUL · DEF · £4.1m · 7.3% ownedIPS (H) · ARS (A) · BHA (H)1.5 /£m
PetrovićBOU · GKP · £4.5m · 2.9% ownedLEE (H) · IPS (A) · NFO (H)1.5 /£m

Defensive contribution engines

Players clearing the defensive contribution threshold most regularly, so the two bonus points land more often than not.

MendyHUL · DEF · £4.1m · 4.7% ownedIPS (H) · ARS (A) · BHA (H)2.30x
FofanaCHE · DEF · £5.0m · 0.2% ownedMUN (H) · SUN (A) · LEE (H)2.26x
SchusterBRE · DEF · £4.5m · 0.4% ownedNFO (H) · BHA (A) · EVE (H)2.21x
HillBOU · DEF · £5.5m · 1.9% ownedLEE (H) · IPS (A) · NFO (H)1.92x
RichardsCRY · DEF · £4.9m · 0.6% ownedTOT (A) · LIV (H) · COV (A)1.88x
BotmanNEW · DEF · £5.0m · 0.8% ownedEVE (H) · FUL (A) · ARS (H)1.88x

Fixture swings over the next five

Kindest runs

SpursCRY (H) · LEE (A) · IPS (H) · SUN (A) · FUL (H)2.40
Coventry CitySUN (H) · EVE (A) · CRY (H) · LEE (A) · IPS (H)2.60
Ipswich TownHUL (A) · BOU (H) · TOT (A) · AVL (H) · COV (A)2.60
Aston VillaFUL (H) · MUN (A) · SUN (H) · IPS (A) · EVE (H)2.80
BournemouthLEE (H) · IPS (A) · NFO (H) · FUL (A) · BHA (H)2.80

Toughest runs

BrentfordNFO (H) · BHA (A) · EVE (H) · MUN (A) · ARS (H)3.60
NewcastleEVE (H) · FUL (A) · ARS (H) · BHA (A) · MUN (H)3.60
FulhamAVL (A) · NEW (H) · MCI (A) · BOU (H) · TOT (A)3.40
LiverpoolARS (H) · CRY (A) · MUN (H) · EVE (A) · SUN (H)3.40
Man UtdCHE (A) · AVL (H) · LIV (A) · BRE (H) · NEW (A)3.40

Lower is easier. Scores are the official fixture difficulty ratings averaged over the next five games.

What the market is doing this week

Most bought

N.Jackson AVL+1123k
Tavernier BOU+765k
Evanilson BOU+435k
Isak LIV+408k
Konsa ARS+215k

Most sold

João Pedro CHE-1421k
Calafiori ARS-385k
Saka ARS-268k
B.Fernandes MUN-254k
Szoboszlai LIV-195k

Net transfers this gameweek. Heavy buying usually means a price rise is close. See price changes.

Availability watch

Widely owned players carrying an injury, suspension or rotation flag. These are already discounted in the projections and never suggested as a buy.

João PedroCHE · 59.8% owned · InjuredThigh injury - Unknown return date
CalafioriARS · 50.2% owned · 75% chance to playHip injury - 75% chance of playing
SzoboszlaiLIV · 14.5% owned · InjuredHamstring injury - Unknown return date
RiceARS · 12.3% owned · 75% chance to playUnspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
ThomasCOV · 9.1% owned · 50% chance to playCalf injury - 50% chance of playing
SakaARS · 8.0% owned · InjuredThigh injury - Unknown return date
SemenyoMCI · 7.3% owned · InjuredKnee injury - Unknown return date
LacroixCHE · 6.2% owned · 50% chance to playHamstring injury - 50% chance of playing

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